关键词: 第二次人口转变, 出生队列, 家庭

Abstract: In the past two decades, the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) has become a major theoretical framework in explaining changes in family behaviors in many countries in the world. Using data from Census, miniCensus, and China Family Panel Studies, we present an overall evaluation of the indicators of the SDT in mainland China, including marriage timing, cohabitation rate, divorce rate, and fertility behavior. Our results suggest that different aspects of the SDT have had varying trajectories in China, in comparison to the West. A rapid change has been observed among more individualized family behavior like marriage and cohabitation: both men and women postpone the timing of transition to first marriage; cohabitation increases rapidly. In terms of childbearing, the extramarital childbirth rate and childless rate among married women are still rare. Divorce rate experienced a slow increase across cohorts, yet our prediction implies that it will remain relatively low in the near future. This study suggests that we should integrate local social, historical and cultural backgrounds in understanding family changes in China.

Keywords:

The Second Demographic Transition, Birth Cohort, Family