关键词: 健康预期寿命, 生活自理预期寿命, 功能残障扩张假说, 功能残障压缩假说, 上海户籍老年人

Abstract: The life expectancy of the older people had increased steadily during 1998-2013 in Shanghai, but their disability-free life expectancy had changed from an increasing trend in 1998-2008 to a decreasing trend in 2008-2013. The period of disability had expanded in 1998-2003, then compressed in 2003-2008, and finally expanded again in 2008-2013 as their lifespan increased. The increase of disability-free life expectancy in 1998-2008 was mainly driven by the decline in mortality while the decline of disability-free life expectancy in 2008-2013 was largely due to an increase of disability rates, which offset the increasing effects of mortality reduction. The social and economic development, the advance of medical technology, and the practice of social security system in Shanghai are the main factors leading to the changes of the disability-free life expectancy. This transition from increase to decrease of disability-free life expectancy of the older people have been consistent with the rapid increase of per capita health expenditure in Shanghai since 2008.

Keywords: Healthy Life Expectancy, Disability-Free Life Expectancy, Compression of Morbidity, Expansion of Morbidity, Registered Elderly in Shanghai