关键词: 失能老年人口, 健康转移, 医疗支出, 人口老龄化, 老年健康

Abstract: Population ageing is one of the greatest challenges for the human society in the 21st century, impacting social and economic development of all the countries in the world. This paper focuses on health and medical expenditure of the elderly in the context of rapid population ageing in China. Based on the Health Transition and Two Part Models, it analyzes the fitted value of the transition probabilities and medical expenditure of disabled elderly. On the basis of future elderly population in China, it predicts the size of Chinese elderly with various health statuses and the trend of medical expenditure. The study finds that the elderly with mild disability have better health maintenance probability and better health improvement probability, while the elderly with moderate and severe disabilities have higher risk of becoming poor health status or death. Along with the increase of the elderly, the size of disabled elderly population in China is expanding, which exerts great pressure on medical services and medical expenditure.

Keywords: Disabled Elderly, Health Transition, Medical Expenditure, Ageing Population, Elderly Health