关键词: 居留意愿, 家庭生命周期, 住房可负担性, 公共服务水平, 社会融入度

Abstract: This paper introduces the family life cycle theory to decompose the impact of the destination city's characteristics on the settlement intention of floating population. It is found that housing affordability has the greatest crowding-out effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family formation period; public services have the most significant pulling effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family expansion period; social integration has the largest pulling effect on family shrinkage. In family formation period, the crowding-out effect of housing affordability is greater for the low-educated and low-income floating population; in family expansion period, the pulling effect of public services has indistinguishable impact on the high & low-educated or high & low-income groups; during family shrinkage period, the pulling effect of social integration has a stronger impact on low-educated and low-income floating population. Using family life cycle theory to study the group heterogeneity of the impact of the destination city on the settlement intention of the floating population helps implement the strategic deployment of “people-centered” new urbanization.

Keywords: Settlement Intention, Family Life Cycle, Housing Affordability, Public Services, Social Integration