人口研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 114-128.

• 人口与经济 • 上一篇    

城市规模分布和经济发展:存在一种特定模式吗?

陆旸1   

  1. 陆旸1,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所。
  • 出版日期:2021-07-29 发布日期:2021-08-11
  • 作者简介:陆旸,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所研究员。

City Size Distribution and Economic Development:Is There a Certain Pattern?

Lu Yang1   

  1. Lu Yang1, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
  • Online:2021-07-29 Published:2021-08-11
  • About author:Lu Yang is Professor, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

摘要: 基于Thomas Brinkhoff的城市人口数据库,采用了118个国家相距10年的两期数据,检验了国家首位值与经济发展之间的关系。研究发现,由人均GNI代表的经济发展水平与首位值之间存在“倒U型”关系,即在较低的经济发展水平上,经济发展与首位值之间的关系为正;而在较高的经济发展水平上,两者之间的关系为负。同时,经验分析结果也发现了“中心区位理论”在解释城市规模分布中的作用。其中,由经济活动强度和制造业占比代表的规模经济和集聚经济促进人口集中,由人口密度和土地面积代表的地租和运输成本促进人口分散。研究结论对中国的启示是,随着中国经济发展水平的提高,特大城市的人口规模并不会无限膨胀,因为“发展”会自动疏散人口。

关键词: 位序规模分布, 首位分布, 经济发展, 人口密度

Abstract: We reexamine the relationship between the city size distribution and economic development of a country by using a new data set provided by Thomas Brinkhoff. We have made use of data on 118 countries in two census periods. The empirical results allow us to confirm that there is an invertedU shape between per capita of income and primacy index. There is a positive relationship between the primacy index and the economic development among the low income countries. However, there is a negative relationship between the two variables among high income countries. This paper also suggests that the central place theory has dominated influence on the city size distribution. Scale and agglomeration economies in production promote urban concentration while land rent and higher transport cost foster population dispersal. The results indicate that population dispersal will accompany with a countrys development and the population in primacy city of China will shrink in the future.

Keywords: Rank-Size Distribution, Primacy Distribution, Economic Development, Population Density