In the context of intertwined challenges of low fertility and gender equality, clarifying the intra-household fertility decision-making mechanisms is of great significance. Drawing on data from the 2018 and 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study adopts a couple-centered perspective and applies the Diagonal Reference Model to quantify the relative influence of husband's and wife's fertility preferences on actual fertility behavior, thereby uncovering the underlying gender power dynamics. The results indicate that family fertility behavior is highly contingent upon the consistency of both partners' intentions, with the concordance of spousal preferences exerting a significant impact on behavioral outcomes. In cases of discordance, the husband's fertility intention tends to predominate, reflecting his relatively dominant role in reproductive decision-making. Further analysis indicates that having a son, residing in an urban area, and a wife's higher educational attainment relative to her husband may enhance the wife's bargaining power to some extent, but they are insufficient to fundamentally alter the gender-based power structure deeply entrenched in patriarchal culture. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of family fertility decision-making mechanisms and offers insights for the formulation and optimization of fertility-supportive policies.

This research projects the population size, structure and disability rate of rural older adults based on the six waves of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey data from 2002 to 2018 and the Seventh National Census data. The result shows that the population size and the proportion of rural people aged 65 and above will increase from 90.35 million and 17.72% in 2020 to 124.38 million and 33.14% in 2035. The ADL disability rate of rural older adults will drop from 5.76% in 2020 to 4.92% in 2035, due to the decline of age-specific disability risk and the ageing population structure. Men's and women's disability rates will drop from 4.92% and 6.55% to 3.79% and 5.87%, respectively. The rural elderly population with disabilties is showing a trend towards severe disability and ageing. The decline in the total disability rate is mainly caused by the rapid decline in the mild disability rate, which was brought about by the reduction in the risk of age-specific disability. The moderate disability rate declined slightly and the severe disability rate continued to rise. The rate of moderate and severe disability are both around 4%. The study provides reliable data for the improvement of rural older care service capabilities and the promotion of long-term care insurance coverage to rural residents.