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The Situation, Influencing Factors, and Policy Responses to Singlehood, Childlessness, and Low Fertility in China: Findings from a Specialized Survey Yang Fan, Guo Pinrui, Liu Jianan Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 30-43.   Abstract （5107）      PDF （1236KB）（5029）       Knowledge map    Save Changes in people's marital and fertility intentions and behaviors play a significant role in declining fertility rates. Based on data from a specialized survey, this paper investigates the intentions and determinants of marriage and fertility within distinct childbearing-age groups, concerning non-marriage or delayed marriage, childlessness or delayed childbearing, and low fertility, under the background of current fertility policies. It finds that the majority of individuals in these groups still wish to marry and have children. The main reasons for the divergence between their intentions and behaviors are the rising costs of marriage and childbearing, including economic and time costs. Furthermore, the impact of cultural and public opinion cannot be overlooked. Regarding the Three-child policy and supporting measures, over twenty percent of the married respondents consider them effective in boosting childbearing intentions. Reducing educational costs, providing child-rearing subsidies, and ensuring parental leave are the common policy demands. Therefore, it is crucial to reduce the costs of child-rearing for families through diversified economic support, establish a comprehensive lifecycle marital and childbearing support policy system, and convey positive marital and childbearing concepts through cultural development. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Status and Changes of the Rural Children Left Behind in China: 2010-2020 Lyu Lidan, Mei Ziying, Li Rui, Li Shu, Yan Fang, Wang Xu, Duan Chengrong Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 103-117.   Abstract （6950）      PDF （1278KB）（5017）       Knowledge map    Save The phenomenon and issues of rural children left behind (RCLB) in China are affecting the flow of human capital between urban and rural areas. This paper clarifies the definition and steps for identifying RCLB, and uses the micro-data of the 2010 and 2020 Population Censuses to analyze relevant characteristics and changing trends over the past ten years. The analysis includes the following aspects: population size of RCLB, their age and sex structure, regional distribution, living arrangements, and educational development. The findings show that the population size of RCLB remained large, and the likelihood of being left-behind was closely related to age and sex. An increasing proportion of RCLB were cared for by grandparents as more mothers migrated between 2010 and 2020. RCLB no longer had any advantage in education opportunity compared with the average level of rural children. Over-age attendance was more noticeable among RCLB than the average level of rural children. We should continue to pay attention to the issue of RCLB and address its root causes. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Internet Use and the Life of Older Adults Aged 50 and above in Digital Era:Findings from a National Survey Jin Yongai, Hu Wenbo, Feng Yang Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 40-55.   Abstract （8519）      PDF （1279KB）（5005）       Knowledge map    Save The swift rise in China's ageing population coincides with the rapid advancement of informatization, presenting unparalleled opportunities and challenges in addressing China's ageing issues. From 2010 to 2022, the percentage of internet users within the 50-59 age group escalated from 11.1% to 73.5%, while in the 60 and above age group, it surged from 4.9% to 54.5%. The examination of how internet use impacts the lives of older adults using the latest empirical data has gained increasing significance. Key findings are as follows: It highlights a profound integration of the internet into the lives of older adults; there exists considerable diversity in internet usage patterns among older adults; it remains crucial to recognize the persistent digital divide among older adults, and elevating cybersecurity awareness among them is paramount to safeguard against potential online threats; furthermore, moderate internet use has shown to positively impact healthy ageing and contribute to the subjective well-being of older individuals. These findings underscore the urgent need to create a digital society that accommodates older adults. This necessitates concerted efforts from governments, enterprises, communities, families, and the older adults themselves. Collective participation and collaborative work are pivotal in cultivating an environment that supports and empowers this demographic within the digital landscape. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Low Fertility and Provincial Differences: Fertility Index-based Observation Song Jian, Hu Bo, Jiang Chunyun, Chen Wenqi Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 74-87.   Abstract （2700）      PDF （1379KB）（4120）       Knowledge map    Save Focusing on the phenomenon that childbearing-age people "do not want to give birth, ""dare not to give birth," and "are unable to give birth," we comprehensively consider the three dimensions of fertility—intention, conditions, and structure, build a fertility composite index according to the relevant theories of low fertility rate, observe and analyze the current situation of low fertility rate in China, and make inter-provincial comparisons. We find that the average national fertility composite index is 0.492. The fertility condition index is the lowest, reflecting the constraints on fertility caused by employment and income factors and lack of fertility support. The structural characteristics of the childbearing-age people are consistent in all provinces, while the fertility intention and fertility conditions are spatially heterogeneous. There is a positive association between fertility index and total fertility rate. With a 0.1 unit increase in fertility index, total fertility rate increases by 0.286 units. Improving fertility intention can help effectively increase the total fertility rate; however, the changes in fertility conditions and fertility structure have not been able to effectively promote the total fertility rate. It is thus necessary to establish, improve, and implement long-term fertility support in order to reshape the fertility intention and change the behavior of the population. Related Articles | Metrics

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On the Statistical Standard, Intensity, and Age Patterns of Migration and Floating Population in China Ding Jinhong, Huang Xiaoli, Han Yulu, Chen Yihao Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 3-19.   Abstract （3532）      PDF （1436KB）（3928）       Knowledge map    Save By combining the places of residence at present, five years ago and at birth, and the place of household registration from census tabulations, migrations in China can be divided into basic categories including long-term migration, short-term migration, direct migration, nominal migration and circulation. Based on both macro and micro data from 2020 census, the scale and intensity of various types of inter-provincial migration are estimated, revealing differences in cultural stickiness and institutional resistance at both origin and destination. To avoid ambiguity, it is recommended that “Inter-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X but not crossing the boundaries of upper level, “Intra-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries below level X, “Cross-X Migration”stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X and above. The Courgeau model indicates that the Crude Migration Intensity (CMI) for lifelong migration in China is 49.5%, while the CMI for five-year migration is 21.0%, showing that Chinese people are becoming more migratory as urbanization progresses. The Rogers age patterns of migration also correspond to contemporary China with some peculiarities in the middle and older age peak. The high proportion of adolescents in nominal migration means that the household registration system still prevents the descendants of migrants from settling down de jure. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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From being “Supplementary” to being “Irreplaceable”: The Impact of Digital Literacy on the Reemployment Transition of the Retired People Chen Nanxu, Li Yuxuan, Wu Jiyu Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 51-68.   Abstract （1839）      PDF （1322KB）（3096）       Knowledge map    Save In the era of rapid expansion of the digital economy and the gradual erosion of demographic dividends, enhancing digital literacy provides a new opportunity for the retired population to re-realize their self-worth and harness their comparative advantages. Based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this paper empirically investigates the influence of digital literacy on retirees' re-employment transitions by employing binary Logit and Probit models. The results show that the improvement of digital literacy notably fosters retirees' transition into reemployment, and this promoting effect is stronger among those with greater learning investments. The primary mechanisms underlying this enhancement lie in social integration and social capital augmentation, while the effectiveness of information acquisition depends on retirees' ability to discern information. Notably, the positive impact of improved digital literacy on reemployment is more pronounced among older adults with higher educational attainment and in regions with lower levels of digital economic development. It is recommended that the delayed retirement ages be formulated differentially to facilitate the construction of a digitally inclusive and age-friendly society. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Postponement of Marriage and Childbearing in China during 1990-2020: Trends and Characteristics Zhang Xianling, Sheng Yi'nan Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 88-101.   Abstract （3403）      PDF （1695KB）（2884）       Knowledge map    Save Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020, this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China. The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in urban and rural China. However, the postponement of the first marriage started earlier in urban areas than rural areas during 2000-2010. The postponement of first marriage in rural areas accelerated during 2010-2020. This led to a widening and then narrowing trend of the urban-rural gap. Age at first marriage differs across educational attainment; women and men with higher education significantly postpone their first marriage. Men with higher education also show a lower likelihood of staying unmarried for life. The curve of age-specific fertility rate for women at childbearing age has shifted downwards to the right, and the peak childbearing age of urban women has shifted more than that of rural women. The mean age at childbearing has been increasing, with a more rapid speed in 2000-2010 and then a slower one in 2010-2020. The mean age at childbearing of each parity has been postponed, especially for the first and second births. Women with different educational levels all postpone childbearing, and those with higher education levels show larger postponement. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Working Life Expectancy of the Older Population in Rural China and Its Regional Differences from 2010 to 2020 Zhang Wenjuan, Chen Lu Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 21-34.   Abstract （1928）      PDF （1231KB）（2400）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the data from the population censuses and the 1% population sampling survey, this paper analyzes the trend of working life expectancy and its regional differences of the rural older population in China from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate that the proportion of working people among the rural older population has been declining since 2010, and their working life expectancy has decreased steadily while their non-working life expectancy has increased. The study also reveals significant gender and regional disparities in the working life expectancy of the rural older population: older males, and those residing in agriculturally developed and population-outflowing areas have a longer working life expectancy and less leisure time in their later lives. There are five typical patterns of working life expectancy extension for the rural older population, which are closely linked to the living standards, willingness to work, labor capacity, and working environment of the older population in the region. The research serves as an inspiration for authorities and society to empower rural older workers while providing them with a well-designed and powerful economic safety net. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Reciprocal Relationship between Physical Disability and Depressive Symptoms among Chinese Older Adults: An Empirical Study Based on CHARLS Data Ruan Yunchen, Lu Jiehua Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 104-117.   Abstract （1852）      PDF （1256KB）（2068）       Knowledge map    Save Paying attention to the physical and mental health of Chinese older adults is of great significance for promoting the implementation of the National Strategy for Actively Responding to Population Ageing and the Healthy China strategy. By applying the fixed effect model and cross-lagged panel model to the data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2013, 2015, and 2018, this paper analyzes the causal relationship between physical disability and depressive symptoms among Chinese older adults. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between physical disability and depressive symptoms during the same period. After controlling for unobserved confounding factors, the deterioration and improvement of physical disability will significantly affect changes in depressive symptoms. Using the cross-lagged panel model, we found a bidirectional causal relationship between physical disability and depressive symptoms among older adults. By utilizing three physical disability measurement indices, namely the Nagi Index, IADL Index, and ADL Index, it was discovered that the bidirectional causal relationship between them remains significant. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the prevention and rehabilitation of physical disability among Chinese older adults and to construct a comprehensive health service system for older adults that encompasses various aspects, including physical and mental health. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Late Marriage and Non-Marriage in China: Trends, Characteristics, and Determinants Zhang Xianling, Chen Jiaju Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 36-51.   Abstract （5421）      PDF （1215KB）（1927）       Knowledge map    Save Based on data from population censuses and a specialized survey, this paper systematically examines the trends, characteristics, and determinants of late marriage and non-marriage in China from 1990 to 2020. The findings reveal that the size of the never-married population aged 30 and above has been growing since 1990, with a larger absolute increase among men but a faster growth rate among women. The urban never-married population surpassed the rural never-married population after 2010. Among the never-married population aged 30 and above, those with a junior high school education constitute the largest increment, while those with a college degree or higher exhibit the fastest growth rate. In addition, the lifelong never-married population has grown, with men outnumbering women and in rural areas exceeding in urban areas. While the largest increment occurred among those with lower educational attainment, recent years have witnessed accelerated increases in both the size and prevalence of non-marriage among highly educated groups. Further analysis reveals that never-married people aged 30 and above exhibit low marriage intentions and demonstrate passive dating behaviors, which are likely to further depress marriage rates and elevate late marriage and non-marriage rates. Structural mismatches in marriage markets and economic pressures are the predominant factors influencing marital decision-making. The study proposes marital support policies focusing on expanding partner-matching networks and reducing the economic costs of marriage. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends and Characteristics of Male Marriage Squeeze in China Guo Zhen, Yang Liuqing, Liang Haili, Li Shuzhuo Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 91-106.   Abstract （4161）      PDF （1325KB）（1850）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.     Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Understanding High-quality Population Development:Theoretical Implications, Supporting Factors, and Practical Paths Wang Xiaofeng, Liu Huawei Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 46-58.   Abstract （3138）      PDF （1254KB）（1837）       Knowledge map    Save The declining birth rates, population ageing, and regional population differentiation urgently require China to optimize its population development strategy, high-quality population development becomes the main guideline. The guideline is derived from new development philosophy, driven by reform and innovation, centered around the high-quality life of the people, aimed at the comprehensive development of individuals and common prosperity of all people, serving the strategy of national rejuvenation. China has the economic advantages of wealth accumulation and high-quality economic development, talent advantages due to the comprehensive education system and the strategy for strengthening the country with talent, advantages in factor aggregation through new-type urbanization and urban agglomeration construction, the institutional advantage of the leadership of the CPC, and the cultural advantages of people-oriented and filial piety values. To make the most of these advantages, China should establish a comprehensive and integrated policy system for high-quality population development that covers fields such as science, education, culture and health, support for childbirth, labor employment, population ageing, and population security. Related Articles | Metrics

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Future Trends and Mechanisms of the Surge of Deaths in China Zhang Zhen, Li Qiang Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 20-34.   Abstract （5685）      PDF （2148KB）（1818）       Knowledge map    Save With the accelerating ageing process of the population, China is facing an unprecedented mortality peak dominated by the older population. Mathematical demography analysis reveals that the evolution of the mortality peak depends on three intertwined demographic factors: (1) historical fertility peaks and troughs play a dominant role in shaping the mortality population, (2) increased survival rates expand the elderly population base, thereby increasing the number of elderly deaths, and (3) period mortality rate declines contribute to reducing the mortality peak. As these three factors have varying effects on different birth cohorts, ages, and periods, age-specific deaths exhibit significant fluctuations. However, when summing up deaths across all ages, the fluctuations at different ages offset each other to some extent, resulting in a relatively smooth trend in the total number of deaths. Although the massive number of deaths among the elderly are a natural outcome of the demographic transition, China’s mortality peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale, posing severe challenges to individuals, families, and society as a whole. The government and all sectors of society need to formulate proactive coping strategies as early as possible Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Ethnic Identity of Children from Interethnic Marriage Families and Its Impact on Ethnic Population Changes Wang Li, Zhou Siyao Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 65-80.   Abstract （2393）      PDF （3729KB）（1681）       Knowledge map    Save This article presents a matrix to analyze the ethnic identity of children from interethnic marriage families. Based on the population balance equation, this study uses individual level data from the seventh national population census to estimate the net effects of ethnic identity on the population change between 2010 and 2020 and examine the preferences among different ethnic groups. An increase of approximately 8.57 million children were from interethnic marriage families over the decade, with nearly 40% of the ethnic minority increase experiencing ethnic identity choices. The size of net population increase due to ethnic identity choices of the ethnic minority was about 1.95 million, accounting for about one-tenth of the increase in the ethnic minority population. For children from Han-minority intermarriage families, about 79.33% had ethnic minority identity. The population changes among different minority groups were mainly driven by the sizes and preferences of children from Han-minority intermarriage families. There were variations in interethnic preference among different interethnic marriage circles. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Shift of Marriage and Procreation Culture in China and Its Demographic Consequences Shi Renbing, Wang Jun Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 78-90.   Abstract （2250）      PDF （1237KB）（1654）       Knowledge map    Save Previous studies on the shifts of Chinese marriage and procreation culture did not reveal the essential characteristics of various cultures or the deep-seated socio-economic background. Based on the examination of mainstream societal values, this study reveals that in traditional Chinese society, people's marriage and procreation behaviors were deeply influenced by Familism. This dominant familism marriage and procreation culture adores “perpetuating the family line”, “early and abundant childbirth” and “more children bring more blessings”. With the establishment and development of socialist market economy, Materialistic values have spread in contemporary China. Materialism is gradually replacing Familism, becoming the new dominant force in marriage and procreation culture. Materialism culture of marriage and procreation, at its core, is a culture of low fertility. It exerts influence on individuals' attitudes and behaviors related to marriage and procreation through a series of intermediate factors, resulting in attitudes of “unwillingness to have children” “daring not to give births” and “inability to have children”. To achieve a moderate fertility level, it is necessary to weaken the influence of Materialism and shape a healthy society that is characterized by individual autonomy and a sense of community. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Delayed Childbearing on Children's Health Development in Post-transitional China: Evidence from the CFPS2010-2020 Niu Jianlin Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 3-17.   Abstract （1531）      PDF （1286KB）（1447）       Knowledge map    Save Delayed childbearing has been found detrimental to children's health. While post-transitional China is observing a substantial increase of childbearing postponement, this study aims to investigate health impact of this trend on the next generation. Using data from the 2010-2020 China Family Panel Studies（CFPS）, this study examines the multidimensional health differences related to both maternal and paternal ages in post-transitional China. The results show that delayed childbearing contributes negatively to children's birth weight, their physical development in childhood, and general health in adolescence. These health impacts operate partly through congenital factors, as manifested in the greater risk of low birth weight, and partly via the related family environments and resources. These findings highlight the need to incorporate health considerations into decisions about childbearing, both for health promotion and for sustained population development.  Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Inertia and Momentum: Concept, Causes, and Empirical Evidence Zhou Changhong, Mao Zhuoyan Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 17-29.   Abstract （3063）      PDF （1248KB）（1407）       Knowledge map    Save Population momentum and population inertia are connected concepts. Both are used to describe the phenomenon that the population will continue growing or decreasing before reaching a stationary population when the fertility reaches the replacement level. However, there are also differences. The population momentum is virtual and can be estimated for any year, while population inertia is a specific demographic phenomenon that only occurs after the population's fertility reaches the replacement level. The Lag effect of fertility on generation replacement is the fundamental cause of population inertia and determines that the standard period of inertial period is equal to the difference between the population's life expectancy at birth and the mean age of childbearing. The length of an actual inertial period of the population is affected by the fertility level during the inertial period and the size of migration. The amplitude of population growth or decrease during the inertial period is affected by the fertility rates in the decades before entering the inertial period. Empirical analysis shows that China, Japan, South Korea and Germany have already undergone the complete processes of population inertial growth which have lasted for 30-50 years. The UK, France, Thailand and Brazil are in the process of population inertial growth. So far, no country in the world has entered the process of negative inertial growth of population. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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China’s Longevity Levels from the Perspective of Centenarians Du Peng, Wu Cilin Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 3-19.   Abstract （3507）      PDF （1388KB）（1301）       Knowledge map    Save When discussing longevity levels, the centenarian population representing an extremely significant group is often overlooked. Based on data from the Seventh National Population Census, China surpassed the United States and had the largest number of centenarians in the world in 2020. China’s proportion of centenarians was also higher than the global average, becoming a country with a huge longevity population. However, there remains a gap compared to developed regions, and further progress is needed to become a leading country in longevity. In China, the eastern regions have the highest number and proportion of centenarians. Urban centenarians outnumber their rural counterparts, and about 70.4% of centenarians are female. The number and proportion of centenarians have increased across different ethnic groups, though disparities exist. To transition from a country with a huge longevity population to a leading country in longevity, China should rely on high-quality development led by the Chinese Path to Modernization. The government should implement comprehensive policies integrating political guidance, economic development, social security, cultural and spiritual life, and environmental protection to promote the development of longevity. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Artificial Intelligence, Labor Demand, and Human Capital Investments Liu Jianan, Xing Chunbing Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 68-84.   Abstract （1913）      PDF （1296KB）（1274）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the data from the population census and sampling survey, this paper constructs instrumental variable regression models to study how the use of industrial robots affects labor demand for workers with different skills, and how the demand shocks affect individuals' human capital investments in local labor markets under the development of artificial intelligence. The study finds that the use of industrial robots has substitution effects for low-skilled non-agricultural workers, while it creates job opportunities for high-skilled non-agricultural workers. The induced demand shocks further affect individuals' human capital investments. Specifically, the substitution of employment of the low-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering regular college, and the boost of employment of the high-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering both high school and regular college. However, both effects discourage human capital investments in vocational education. The results indicate that the popularization of artificial intelligence could promote human capital investments, improving population quality and mitigating the negative impact of population decline. Meanwhile, future policies should improve and support the integration of vocational education with the regular educational system to adapt to the labor demand changes brought by the artificial intelligence development. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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He is Healthier? The Effects of the Parity-employment Life Course Trajectory on the Health of Mid-aged and Older Adults in China Zhao Menghan, Gao Weijie Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 18-31.   Abstract （1495）      PDF （2725KB）（1218）       Knowledge map    Save China has recently implemented strategies of actively addressing population ageing and healthy China. In this context, understanding the health disparities among mid-aged and older adults from the life course perspective improves lifelong health service policies. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS）and sequence analysis, this study constructs parity-employment trajectories. Seven trajectories are identified for both men and women, as well as a male-specific trajectory of remaining unmarried and childless while working, and a female-specific trajectory of giving birth to one child and leaving the workforce early. Among younger birth cohorts, more individuals have only one or two children, while fewer have three or more children. Moreover, a higher proportion of women leaving the workforce early is found among younger cohorts. Further analysis shows that an increase in the number of births has a negative effect on the health of mid-aged and older women while leaving the workforce early is detrimental to the health of both men and women. Related Articles | Metrics

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High-quality Population Development, New Human Capital, and High-quality Employment Yu Xiao, Wang Qihui Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 59-73.   Abstract （1472）      PDF （1282KB）（1209）       Knowledge map    Save The overall quality—scientific and cultural quality, health quality, and ideological and moral quality—is the key to high-quality population development. Based on the three-level theory of personality, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of non-cognitive ability and verifies the impact of non-cognitive ability, such as ideological and moral quality and personality quality, on high-quality employment of workers from the perspective of the new human capital theory. Main conclusions: Workers with higher scores in emotional stability, conscientiousness, and openness personality traits will achieve greater external career success, while those with higher scores in conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and openness will experience higher internal career achievement. A sense of successful value helps to enhance a worker's external and internal career accomplishments. Workers with higher scores in industrious experience will obtain higher internal career achievement. Non-cognitive ability maximizes personal utility through career matching, and also affects workers' career achievements by increasing occupational investment and accumulating social capital. Related Articles | Metrics

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Influence of Climate Factors on Mortality Risk of Older Adults in China Fan Xiying, Li Jingjing Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 115-128.   Abstract （1848）      PDF （1263KB）（1194）       Knowledge map    Save Older adults have higher mortality risk during climate change. Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and the China Meteorological Yearbook, this study employs the Cox proportional hazards model to test the impacts of climate factors and individual socioeconomic characteristics on older adults' mortality risk. The research results indicate that changes in climate factors lead to changes in older adults' mortality risk. Extreme high and low temperatures have a significant negative impact on the mortality risk. Its interaction terms with other climate factors, such as air pressure and humidity, are also significant. Unmarried rural older men have a higher mortality level, while economically advanced older people typically exhibit lower risk. Social security plays an interference or reinforcement interactive role in the impact of different climate factors on the mortality risk of older adults, which can effectively improve their climate adaptability. Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends in Marriage Postponement in China: An Analysis Using Multiple Methods Chen Wei, Ouyang Baihui Population Research    2024, 48 (6): 18-32.   Abstract （4243）      PDF （1329KB）（1170）       Knowledge map    Save Data from 2020 Population Census show an acceleration in the trend of delaying first marriages in China since 2010. The mean age at first marriage for women rose from 23.28 years in 2000 to 24.00 years in 2010 and to 27.95 years in 2020. Given that the population-weighted method is influenced by age structure, alternative methods, including rate-weighted method, the singulate mean age at marriage and net nuptiality table, are used to calculate and compare the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women. All indicators reflect the similar trend of delaying first marriage among Chinese women, with a noticeable acceleration in recent years. However, when age structure effects are removed, the increase in the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women shows a more moderate upward trend, with a delay of 2.92 to 3.78 years between 2000 and 2020, which is less than the result calculated by the population-weighted method. Across the different indicators, an initial widening and then narrowing trend in the urban-rural gap in first marriage delay is observed. After controlling for age structure, the extent of delay in first marriage is lower for all urban, town and rural women, with the difference being smaller in urban and larger in towns and rural areas. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends of International Migration in China's Neighboring Countries since 1960 Duan Chengrong, Min Xinwei Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 102-114.   Abstract （1680）      PDF （1277KB）（1167）       Knowledge map    Save Using the Global Bilateral Migration Database and the International Migration Stock Database, this paper examines the changing trends of international migration from China's neighboring countries between 1960 and 2020. It also explores the situation of migrants from neighboring countries to China and their future trends. In the past 60 years, both the stock of migrants from neighboring countries and the stock of neighboring countries' migrants to China decreased first and then increased. Meanwhile, the destinations of migrants from neighboring countries began to shift to Europe, America, and the Gulf countries, with differences existing among neighboring countries. During this period, although migrants from neighboring countries occupied an important position among all migrants in China, most migrants from neighboring countries did not migrate to mainland China. Considering China's future development prospects, it can be expected that China will face a larger scale of migrants from neighboring countries. Currently, adequate preparations are needed in academic research and policy-making. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Fertility Support Policy on Fertility Desire of the Reproductive-Age Population: An Empirical Analysis Based on 2021 Chengdu Specialized Survey Wang Zhuo, Li Menghe Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 3-18.   Abstract （2540）      PDF （1281KB）（1121）       Knowledge map    Save To explore the impact of fertility support policy on fertility desire and its mechanisms, this study divides fertility support policy into pregnancy support policy and parenting support policy based on fertility behavior, and conductes empirical analysis using the special survey data of “Effectiveness evaluation of fertility policy and supporting measures” in Chengdu in 2021. The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between pregnancy support policy and fertility desire, while the relationship between parenting support policy and fertility intention is not supported by empirical evidence. In further exploring of the differential mechanisms of fertility cost perceptions and fertility preferences in the impact of pregnancy support policies on fertility desire, the childbearing age groups can be classified into four categories: “daring but not willing to give birth”, “not willing and not daring to give birth”, “daring and willing to give birth” and “willing but not daring to give birth”. Different policy directions are applicable to different types of childbearing age groups under different mechanisms. Therefore, constructing a long-term fertility support policy system requires the scientific identification of target groups and precise policies to improve policy effectiveness and to effectively enhance fertility levels. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Observations of Chinese Culture of Marriage and Childbearing in the Context of Low Fertility Song Jian, Liu Shiwen, Tang Tianrong Population Research    2024, 48 (5): 17-30.   Abstract （2472）      PDF （1276KB）（1092）       Knowledge map    Save Constructing a new culture of marriage and childbearing (CMC) has been widely valued by China in recent years. However, there is still a lack of consensus on basic issues such as the definition and characteristics of the CMC. By drawing on cultural paradigm and related theories, we construct a conceptual framework of CMC, integrating the macro and micro levels, as well as two dimensions of cognition and practice, and define CMC as people's values and behaviors related to marriage and childbearing, along with corresponding social norms and customs. By using Etic and Emic Analysis, we first observe CMC in the context of societal changes, revealing that China's marriage and parenting culture exhibits a blend of traditional resilience and modern adaptability, demonstrating characteristics of both tradition and modernity. Then, based on the data from the National “Observation Notes on CMC” collected in 2024, we examine the CMC from the perspective of young people, revealing changes in the internal mechanism of CMC. In this context, we suggest that the construction of CMC in the new era should follow two basic principles: the continuity in the historical dimension and the unity in reality dimension. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Substitute or Supplement? The Impact of Home-based Care Services on Intergenerational Support of Chinese Older People Sun Juanjuan, Tian Jiayin, Chen Yuxin Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 35-50.   Abstract （1674）      PDF （1240KB）（1079）       Knowledge map    Save Both of the home-based care services for older people and the function of old-age support by family have been integrated into the national strategy of actively responding to ageing. However, more in-depth studies are necessary to explore the effects of home-based care services on family support for the older people. Based on a counterfactual framework and using the 2018 and 2020 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) data, this paper employs a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods to measure the influence of home-based care services on family intergenerational support. The results show that home-based care services for the older people have a significant negative impact on their family intergenerational support, to a certain extent, replacing the instrumental support provided by adult children. Moreover, this substitution effect is more significant among the relatively vulnerable elderly group. The empirical results also suggest that the effect of home-based care services on family intergenerational support does not significantly reduce the intergenerational relationships of older adults, and that the overall functioning of family care is maintained. Therefore, in order to promote the mutual integration and positive interaction between social care services and family care, the support for the family care provided by home-based care services should be strengthened. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Policy Effects of China’s Pilot Reforms in Home- and Community-based Eldercare Services Wang Yongmei, Zhang Shuo, Gong Xiaoyan Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 81-97.   Abstract （1909）      PDF （1291KB）（1042）       Knowledge map    Save This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the policy effects of China’s pilot reforms in home- and community-based eldercare services using panel data from the China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS) for 2014 and 2020 and a difference-in-differences (DID) model. An “individual-family” dual-effects model is built for this purpose. The aforementioned analysis reveals the following four results. First, the “mental health effects” of the pilot reforms were validated by the data from the pilot policies, yet primarily evident in female older people and urban elderly. Second, the pilot reforms showed quite high family spillover effects and notably inspired filial piety and relevant behaviors among children towards their older parents, which played an important role in promoting family development and the reconstruction of filial norms in the new era. Third, the pilot reforms expanded the social networks of older people, thus improving their mental health. Finally, although the core achievement of the pilot reforms lay in daily care services, they provided a path for the integrated development of medical care and health care with their extensive health assessments. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for advancing the high-quality development of China’s home- and community-based service systems. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Period and Cohort Analysis of Inter-provincial Lifetime Migration in China Zhou Hao, Lei Linxuan Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 107-125.   Abstract （1406）      PDF （2627KB）（1027）       Knowledge map    Save Birthplace information is crucial for migration studies, enabling identification of lifetime migrants. Using data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses, this research depicts inter-provincial lifetime migration in China, outlines national- and provincial-level migration trends, directions, and age patterns. The results suggest that lifetime migration reflects historical and contemporary migration, while the historical marks gradually fade. Its spatial distribution shows the characteristics of diffusion for the places of origin and diffusion-and-concentration for the destinations, while China's population remains relatively static. Cohort analysis highlights that lifetime migration has a cumulative effect over time and is closely associated with life events. The study concludes that birthplace information has a unique research perspective distinct from others, and calls for further research on the conditions and causal mechanisms of bidirectional migration flows. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Population Flow Networks in China: Based on Four Types of Population Flows Zhang Yaojun, Chen Yun, Wu Xiwei, Qi Jinghan Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 118-132.   Abstract （2227）      PDF （6859KB）（1005）       Knowledge map    Save Studying population flow patterns is essential for comprehending regional population changes and economic and social development trends. Using data from the sixth and seventh national population censuses to classify China's interprovincial population flows into four types: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural, this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics of population flow networks and their influencing factors using a spatial autoregressive negative binomial model. The results show that: The proportion of rural-urban and urban-urban population flows has increased, while the proportion of rural-rural population flows has decreased. Rural-rural and rural-urban population flows tend to move from west to east, while urban-urban and urban-rural population flows are diverse and bi-directional. China's population center is shifting from a single city (province) to an urban agglomeration. While economic factors play a significant role in rural-urban and rural-rural population flows, the factors influencing urban-rural and urban-urban population flows are complex and diverse. The degree of influence of economic factors on these flows is weakening. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Current Levels and Changing Patterns of Labor Force Participation among Older Adults at Age 60-69 in China Song Yueping, Zhang Guangying, Peng Keyu Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 75-89.   Abstract （2812）      PDF （1309KB）（958）       Knowledge map    Save The population ageing in China has become increasingly profound, and Actively Responding to Population Ageing has become a national strategy. While the older adults at age 60-69 (i.e., the young old adults) have great human resources to be utilized, their labor force participation levels have not been thoroughly examined. Based on data from the censuses and 1% population sampling surveys from 2000 to 2020, this study describes the demographic characteristics and labor force participation features of the young old adults in China from the perspectives of urban-rural areas, regions, gender, education and health status. The study reveals that the size of the young old adults in China is rapidly growing, with continuous improvements in education and health human capital. However, the efficiency of utilizing the human resources of the young old adults remains low. The young old workers in rural and remote areas primarily engage in agricultural activities, with a relatively single employment structure. Although the young old adults in urban and developed areas have more job opportunities, they mostly engage in low-end labor with low incomes and poor social insurance. The young old women have great potential in terms of human resources, but they face more employment obstacles at institutional, socio-cultural and personal cognitive levels. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Reproductive Cycle Transition: A Historical Review, Future Prospects, and Theoretical Construction from an International Comparative Perspective Geng Wenjun, Ding Jinhong, Shen Ke, Gu Gaoxiang Population Research    2025, 49 (4): 3-19.   Abstract （1611）      PDF （1384KB）（914）       Knowledge map    Save The reproductive cycle refers to the process from a woman's first to last birth. Through a systematic categorization and analysis of the evolution of reproductive cycles across global regions, combined with theoretical discussions on long-term demographic development, this study reveals that reproductive cycle evolution exhibits significant ergodicity, termed the Reproductive Cycle Transition (RCT). The RCT progresses through four stages: a Steady-State Stage, a Compression Stage, a Leveling-Off Stage, and an Equilibrium Stage. It shifts from a traditional pattern characterized by a low age at first birth, a high age at last birth, and a long reproductive span (“low-high-high”) to a modern pattern characterized by a high age at first birth, a low age at last birth, and a short reproductive span (“high-low-low”). The RCT parallels the fertility transition. Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and East Asia have entered the Leveling-Off Stage. In contrast, most of Asia, Africa, and Latin America are in the late stage of the Compression Stage, while East, Central, and West Africa remain in their early stage. China's reproductive cycle exhibits an accelerated pattern, beginning in the 1960s and entering the Leveling-Off Stage by the early 1990s. The shortening of the reproductive span carries the risk of lowest-low fertility. Fertility support policies should target the distinct fertility needs of women across different age groups. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Extended Study of the Theory of Intergenerational Wealth Flows Chen Youhua, Yang Huikang Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 35-51.   Abstract （1988）      PDF （1315KB）（886）       Knowledge map    Save John Caldwell developed the theory of intergenerational wealth flows at the micro-family level, which suggests that changes in family economic relations, particularly changes in the direction of intergenerational wealth flows within families, have led to fertility transition. It is undoubtedly original, but there are problems with its application and explanation. Based on the empirical facts described by the theory, an attempt is made to operationalize its concepts and core propositions, and to illustrate them empirically with the indicators and data provided by the National Transfer Accounts (NTA). It is found that introducing the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at the public level leads to more combinations of the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at different levels. Along with population ageing, changes in the direction of public-level intergenerational wealth flows can lead to a bottom-up shift in the direction of the aggregated flow. The shift is influenced by the demographic factors and the average age-specific transfers. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Limitations and Future Prospects of Formal Demography in Contemporary China Wang Xuehui, Peng Xizhe Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 65-77.   Abstract （1288）      PDF （1216KB）（872）       Knowledge map    Save With the socioeconomic development and transformation, China's demographic changes have showed various unique cultural characteristics and strong contemporary features. Many concepts, indicators and theories in formal demography can hardly be used to accurately analyze and interpret China's population development. The main problems lie in the inadequate temporal relevance of some demographic analytical indicators and their lack of effective localization. These indicators include those in the fields of population ageing, population migration, and family studies. The Chinese path of modernization and rapid demographic transition has provided rich empirical scenarios for the innovative developments in demography. The future development of Chinese demography should be based on the inheritance of the formal demography achievement and the incorporation of the new features in the new era. Meanwhile, it should also follow the principles of topicality, localization, expansion and internationalization to innovate or reconstruct the formal demographic index system and theoretical frameworks, continuously promote the establishment of an autonomous knowledge system in Chinese demography and contribute Chinese wisdom to the development of demography worldwide. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Prospective Study of the Impact of Caring for Grandchildren on the Physical Health and Psychological Well-being of Rural Older Adults Wang Ping, Chang Chaoqun, Pan Shuang, Li Yiming Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 32-45.   Abstract （1104）      PDF （1285KB）（856）       Knowledge map    Save Using 7-wave longitudinal data spanning 18 years, this paper explores the impact of grandparenting on rural older adults' physical health and psychological well-being. Moderate or intensive care, grandparenting regardless of whether living with adult children or not, and transitioning to grandparenting significantly increase older adults' (instrumental) activities of daily living, while never grandparenting and transitioning to the state of not grandparenting significantly decrease their (instrumental) activities of daily living. Intensive care, grandparenting and living with adult children, and persistent care positively affect their self-rated health, while never grandparenting negatively affects their self-rated health. Older adults who have persistently/never cared for grandchildren are more/less satisfied with their lives. Moderate and intensive grandparenting and grandparenting regardless of whether living with adult children or not significantly reduce older adults' depression, while never grandparenting and transitioning to the state of not grandparenting significantly increase the number of depressive symptoms. The results suggest that moderate grandparenting benefits older adults' physical health and psychological well-being. This might result from the harmonious interaction between their role of ageing parents and their "parent" role in intergenerational child care. Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Population Quality to Complement Population Quantity: Intrinsic Mechanism and Realization Path Hu Yaoling, Xu Yangyang Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 22-39.   Abstract （1433）      PDF （1344KB）（853）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from censuses and statistical yearbooks between 2000 and 2020 and World Population Prospects 2022, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for labor force quality to estimate the nominal labor supply and effective labor supply equivalent in China and analyze the feasibility and realization path of population quality complementing population quantity. The results show that China's nominal labor supply will drop from 744.7 million in 2020 to 565.9 million in 2050. Although the effective labor supply equivalent is higher than the nominal labor supply, it is constrained by the decline of the labor force. The effective labor supply equivalent will peak at 752.9 million in 2028 and then drop to 643.1 million in 2050. By improving the relative labor quality through educational reform and health interventions, the year of the peak can be postponed until 2032, and it can remain over 714 million before 2050, achieving the population quality complementing quantity in the short term. In the long term, fully leveraging the compensatory effect of population quality cannot be achieved without a certain population size. It is necessary to strengthen the policy system further to support fertility. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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From “Baby Boom” to “Ageing Boom”: Facts and Trends Du Peng, Ma Qifeng Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 3-19.   Abstract （2219）      PDF （1268KB）（850）       Knowledge map    Save As the “ageing echo” of the “Baby Boom”, the “Ageing Boom” has not yet received sufficient scholarly attention. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the nation has experienced four distinct “Baby Boom” cohorts, which are projected to transform into “Ageing Boom” during the periods 2010-2018, 2022-2036, 2041-2054, and 2071-2079 respectively. Each “Ageing Boom” represents a peak in the growth of the new elderly population, and its cumulative and superimposed effects will drive China's ageing population through phased transformations characterized by sequential stages: ascent, peak, buffer, and decline. China's demographic ageing under the “Ageing Boom” paradigm exhibits both distinctive and general characteristics: a historically unprecedented population scale, asynchronous growth in size and proportion, ageing of the age structure, balancing of the gender structure, and steadily rising survival rates. Focusing on the ongoing second “Ageing Boom”, projections indicate that approximately 330 million individuals will enter old age, with urban residents and population with at least secondary education constituting the majority of this elderly cohort. These demographic shifts present dual implications—harboring developmental opportunities while simultaneously posing practical challenges that require prudent consideration and proactive responses. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Structure Reconstruction and Human Capital Accounting in China from 2000 to 2020 Wang Jinying, Zhang Guoting Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 3-21.   Abstract （1603）      PDF （1286KB）（822）       Knowledge map    Save Continuous and complete population data by age and education level are the basis for studying the dynamic relationship between population and economic and social development in a country or region. However, in non-census years, such data cannot be directly obtained or its quality cannot be guaranteed. To this end, the national population census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 are used to reconstruct the population data by age and education level for non-census years from 2000 to 2020 using the population discrete development equation forward and backward bidirectional feedback fitting method. Based on this, an improved accounting model is used to calculate the human capital stock from 2000 to 2020.The research results show that the difference between the reconstructed non-census year total population data and the adjusted data from the National Bureau of Statistics is very small. The reconstructed age-specific population data corrected the bias in the age composition data published in previous statistical yearbooks. The calculated data on human capital stock shows that it increased from 15.856 billion person-years in 2000 to 26.479 billion person-years in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 2.60%. Affected by the ageing population and the decrease in the working age population, the growth rate of human capital stock shows a decreasing trend between the first and the second ten-year periods. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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When Fertility Support Policies are Effective？ Gender Equality, the Combination of Fertility Support Policies, and the Rebound of Total Fertility Rate in 27 Countries Zhang Yang, Li Lingchun Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 3-19.   Abstract （3019）      PDF （13910KB）（748）       Knowledge map    Save China has witnessed a low total fertility rate for decades; thus, it is imperative to build a fertility support policy system based on the experience of other lowfertility countries. Drawing on a constructed longitudinal dataset, we investigate the associations of different fertility support policy combinations with a fertility rebound and the moderating effects of gender equality on these associations. We find that policy combinations supporting the dualearners model are more conducive to fertility rebound, compared to those supporting the malebreadwinner model. Economic support policies have a stable positive relationship with the total fertility rate, while the effects of service and time support policies are contingent upon gender equality. Specifically, the effects of service and time support policies are more pronounced with higher levels of gender equality. These findings suggest that we need to consider the coordination and combination of different types of fertility policies, and rethink the value orientation and social background behind the policies, and promote a genderfriendly social environment. Related Articles | Metrics

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Mediating Role of Fertility Motivation in the Impact of Internet Use on Fertility Intentions Chen Weimin, Wang Youru Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 44-59.   Abstract （2452）      PDF （1300KB）（745）       Knowledge map    Save Analysis of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data reveals that fertility motivations mediate the impact of internet use on fertility intentions. This mediating role operates in two directions. First, internet use diminishes family-oriented fertility motivations, including family legacy and economic utility motivation, suppressing fertility intentions. Second, internet use enhances individual-oriented fertility motivations, particularly emotion-driven motivation, promoting fertility intentions. Overall, the inhibiting role played by fertility motivation is more pronounced in the influence of internet use on fertility intentions. The mediating effect accounts for 11.251% of the total effect. Further, the impact of internet use on fertility motivation differs across cohorts, genders, urban-rural residences, and education levels. The impacts of different online behaviors on fertility motivation are also different. Exploring the mediating role of fertility motivation contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which internet use influences fertility intentions, offering novel insights for addressing low fertility rates in the internet era. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics