Abstract: It has been a mystery how high Chinese fertility is in the 1990s.Using education statistics from Ministry of Health,which are independent of statistics from population-related departments,this paper assesses levels and patterns of underreporting in the 2000 census,thus estimating China’s fertility in the 1990s.Upon adjustment according to the education statistics,age-sex structure of population aged 0-9 of the 2000 census is reconstructed,which is then converted into annual number of births in 1991-2000,and fertility rates in the 1990s are reproduced.Estimates show that China reached replacement fertility in 1991,and had below-replacement fertility after that.China’s total fertility rate in the late 1990s stood at 1.7-1.8.

Keywords: Education statistics, Census data, Total fertility rate

摘要： 1990年代我国的生育水平究竟是多少,这一直是个谜。本文利用中国一直独立存在的严密而周全的教育统计数据,来估计2000年人口普查中的漏报,最终估计我国1990年代的生育水平。通过教育统计数据对人口普查数据进行调整,重构2000年普查0~9岁人口的年龄性别结构;并将2000年0~9岁人口转换为1991~2000年历年的出生人数,进而估算1990年代我国的生育水平。从推算和估计的结果看,我国1991年生育率达到更替水平,之后进一步下降,低于更替水平。1990年代后期我国的总和生育率在1.7~1.8。

关键词: 教育数据, 普查数据, 总和生育率