Abstract: This paper examines and compares total fertility rate and cohort cumulative fertility,and discusses the utility of cohort cumulative fertility in analyzing the declining fertility trend in China.The relatively accurate and consistent cohort cumulative fertility data show sustained declining fertility in China in the 1990s,on which estimates are made that China’s total fertility rates in the recent years have dropped to below 1.6 births per woman.

Keywords: Total fertility rate, Cohort cumulative fertility, Data quality

摘要： 本文对反映生育水平的两个基本指标——总和生育率和队列累计生育率进行分析,肯定多年来多个调查所得到的队列累计生育率的数据质量。尽管队列累计生育率反映的是"过去"而不是"当前"的实际生育水平,但历次调查所反映出的1990年代以来生育水平变化趋势是持续下降,并推断近几年的总和生育率已经下降到1.6以下。

关键词: 总和生育率, 累计生育率, 数据质量