Abstract: China’s population is at a turning point.By calculating intrinsic rate of natural increase over 1950-2006,this paper shows that the intrinsic rate turned negative in as early as 1990 despite the positive natural increase rate of China’s population.China has been gaining negative population growth momentum as a result of low fertility over the past decade.Population simulations under different scenarios demonstrate major impact of the negative momentum on China’s future size and age structure of population.Policy implications are discussed.

Keywords: Negative population growth momentum, Natural increase rate, Intrinsic rate of natural increase

摘要： 本文计算了中国1950～2006年期间的人口内在自然增长率,发现早在1990年时内在增长率就已经由正变负。并且通过该指标与人口自然增长率的比较发现,中国过去十几年的低生育率正在逐渐累积起人口负增长惯性。此外,本文基于不同的模拟方案结果揭示出,人口负增长惯性将会对未来中国人口规模和年龄结构有重大影响。本研究旨在说明,中国人口发展处于转折的关键时期,应当充分认识低生育率下的人口负增长惯性问题,有关人口决策必须尊重人口发展的内在规律。

关键词: 人口负增长惯性, 人口内在自然增长率, 人口自然增长率