Abstract: This article develops a balanced-population development approach to the demographic transition theory,arguing that demographic transition is a process in which societies move from a low-level population balance to a high-level population balance.China has experienced two phases of demographic transition: a stage in which the demographic transition occurred ahead of economic development and a stage in which it interacts with economic development;and China needs to stride across two traps in the demographic transition process: a "high-child-dependency" tarp and a "high old-dependency" trap.Stabilizing moderately low fertility levels and enhancing quality of the population are among the fundamental tasks for the future.

Keywords: Demographic Transition, Post-Demographic Transition, Balanced Population Development

摘要： 从人口均衡发展的角度对人口转变理论进行了研究,认为人口转变是由低级人口均衡转变为高级人口均衡的跃迁过程,人口"总量相对静止、结构高位稳定"是最理想的人口发展状态。中国人口转变经历了超前经济发展的"人口转变"和与经济互动发展的"后人口转变"两个阶段,人口转变过程中需跨越"高少儿抚养"和"高老年赡养"的两次陷阱。稳定适度低生育水平和提升人口素质是未来根本任务,从较短期看总和生育率保持在1.8左右,从中长期看总和生育率回归更替水平,是"后人口转变"时期的战略目标,也是促进人口长期均衡发展的必由之路。

关键词: 人口转变, 后人口转变, 人口均衡发展