Abstract: Population and its growth have been regarded as the major driving force of carbon dioxide emissions,while the effects of household dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions have been largely neglected.In this paper,a multi-variable model(VAR) is built in which the dynamic effects among population,household and carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed through impulse response function method(IRF).A variance decomposition technique is adopted to investigate the differences and relative importance of their effects.The results show that the variables representing household dynamics have stronger explanatory power than that of the total population.Family size effect on carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the effect of household numbers,which in turn is greater than the population effect.Therefore,sustainable patterns of family household should be advocated in the policy-making of energy conservation and emission reduction.Household reduction of emission would have a larger potential to meeting the reduction goals.

Keywords: Population, Family Size, Household Dynamics, Carbon Dioxide Emissions

摘要： 人口数量及其增长率常常被认为是二氧化碳排放增长的重要推动力之一,而家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的影响往往被忽视。基于此,采用VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数来考察人口和家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的动态影响,并用方差分解法揭示其相互影响程度及差异。结果表明,家庭层面变量对二氧化碳排放的影响远大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。考察人口总量、平均家庭规模以及家庭户变动三者对二氧化碳排放影响的贡献差异发现,平均家庭规模对二氧化碳排放的影响大于家庭户变动对二氧化碳排放的影响,且大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。相对于人口总量,以家庭户为视角来研究人口因素对二氧化碳的影响更为重要。因此,在节能减排的政策建议中,应当更多倡导推广有利于可持续发展的家庭户模式,家庭减排对于减排目标的实现将具有更大的潜力。

关键词: 人口, 家庭规模, 家庭户, 二氧化碳排放