Abstract: Abstract: The European Debt Crisis is a systemic imbalance among the European population structure，economic structure，welfare structure and political structure In the low fertility trap ，the high degree of aging and heavy dependency ratio fundamentally shake the population basis of welfare socie-
ty，while the European debt crisis expands the impacts of population structural changes from the economic field to the social and political fields European debt crisis is also a warning for China， where demographic，economic and social structural changes have been rapidly undergoing Under the circumstance of multiple challenges resulting from the combined complexity of an aging population，the increasing dependency ratio，slowing economic growth，the threat to middle － income trap，social transformation and reconstruction of social interests relationship， how to learn lessons from the debt crisis and to establish incentive and adaptive social institutions to coping with future population changes would be vital in making strategic choices of social development in China.

Keywords: European Debt Crisis, Low Fertility Trap, Welfare Society, Dependent atio, Productivity of Population Structure

摘要： 欧债危机是欧洲人口结构与经济结构、福利结构、政治结构之间的系统性失衡。在"低生育率陷阱"中,高度的老龄化和沉重的抚养比从根本上撼动了福利国家的人口基础,导致经济低迷和债台高筑,并使得人口结构性变化的影响从经济领域扩展至社会和政治层面。欧债危机对于同样处在人口、经济和社会的结构性变化时期的中国而言是一个警示。在人口老龄化、抚养比提高、劳动年龄人口规模和比重下降、经济增长减速和面临中等收入陷阱威胁、社会转型和社会利益关系格局重构等多重挑战下,中国应该汲取欧债危机的教训,保持人口结构的生产性与消费性的长期均衡,加大人力资本投资和建立具有弹性的劳动力市场,建立激励型并适应未来人口结构变化的社会保障制度。

关键词: 欧债危机, 低生育率陷阱, 福利社会, 抚养比, 人口结构生产性