Abstract: Drawing upon data from a twelve-city migrant survey conducted in 2009， this paper takes the advantage of structural equation modeling to examine the determinants of settlement intention of migrant workers， and to explore the mechanism of how these determinants indirectly affect settlement intentions via
city attachment． Model results show that the sense of city attachment plays an important role in determining rural migrantsintention to make permanent settlement in cities． Migrants of more years of education，being single， having skilled job， and with spouse or boy or girl friend in the same city are more willing to settle in cities． Having access to formal housing， frequently interacting with local people， and mastering local language not only positively affect the intention to settle in cities， but also indirectly and positively affect settlement intention via city attachment． The direct negative effect of size of social network on settlement intention is greater than the indirect positive effect via city attachment． Experience of discrimination and gender role also indirectly affect settlement intention． Model results also demonstrate the significance of further distinguishing the direct and indirect effects．

Keywords: Settlement Intention, City Attachment, Direct Effect, Indirect Effect, Structural Equation Modeling

摘要： 文章利用2009年十二个城市流动人口的问卷调查数据,使用结构方程模型对农民工城市定居意愿的影响因素进行了分析。模型结果表明,城市归属感在农民工城市定居决策中具有重要作用,各因素直接或通过城市归属感间接影响其定居意愿。受教育时间越长、未婚、工作需要技能以及配偶或恋人在同城的农民工更愿意在城市定居。参与正式住房市场、与本地人的互动、掌握方言的熟练程度不仅直接对城市定居意愿产生正向影响,而且积极影响归属感从而间接提升其定居意愿。农民工社会网络对定居意愿的直接负面效应大于其通过归属感带来的间接正面效应。受歧视经历和性别也通过影响归属感间接影响城市定居意愿。模型结果表明进一步区分"直接效应"和"间接效应"的重要意义。

关键词: 定居意愿, 城市归属感, 直接效应, 间接效应, 结构方程模型