Abstract: China is still in the process of inertial growth with positive natural increase rate and rising total population size． However，China s population reproductive pattern has changed into that of an intrinsically negative growth under the surface of positive increase． Using 2000 and 2010 national population census data，this paper calculates the national and provincial population reproductive indicators including NRR，T and k in China，and conducts a cluster analysis to classify the 31 provinces，cities and autonomous regions into four groups according to NRR and T． Results indicate that China has seen its intrinsic increase rate below-20‰ and NRR in 2000 and 2010 very close to 0. 5，implying a huge negative population momentum potential． The population reproductive patterns in 31 regions show consistently reducing trends，and gaps among regions are getting smaller in the first decade of the 21st
century． The average lengths between generations are enlarging with a national average level of over 28 years． Such regions as Beijing and Guangdong have presented extremely late childbearing and extremely few children situation． The paper also discusses the possible influence of data defects on the results．

Keywords: Inertial Growth, Population Reproduction, 31 Regions in Mainland China, Cluster Analysis, National Population Census

摘要： 中国人口仍处于惯性增长阶段,自然增长率为正值且总人口规模不断增加,然而在此表象下,人口再生产模式已呈现萎缩型。文章利用两次全国人口普查数据,分别计算了2000年和2010年全国及各省市自治区的人口再生产指标,并借助净再生产率和平均世代间隔指标对各地区的人口再生产模式进行了聚类分析。结果发现:中国大陆地区人口的内在自然增长率已低于-20‰,人口净再生产率接近0.5,蕴含巨大的负增长惯性势能;31个省市自治区呈现一致的人口再生产缩减态势,且新世纪前10年区域间的差异在缩小;平均世代间隔不断扩大,平均水平已突破28年;部分地区呈现"极晚育极少生"的态势。文章还就数据质量对结果的可能影响进行了讨论。

关键词: 惯性增长, 人口再生产, 31个省市自治区, 聚类分析, 人口普查