Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy

Population Research ›› 2014, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 3-17.

Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy

Zhai Zhenwu¹, Zhang Xianling², Jin Yongai³

1 Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872; 2 Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872; 3 Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872

Online:2014-03-29 Published:2014-06-30
Contact: zhaizw@ruc.edu.cn
About author:1 Professor，Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China; 2 PhD Candidate,Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China; 3 PhD Candidate,Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China

立即全面放开二胎政策的人口学后果分析

翟振武¹，张现苓²，靳永爱 ³

1 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京100872；2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京100872；3 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京100872

通讯作者: zhaizw@ruc.edu.cn
作者简介:1 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授；2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士研究生；3 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士研究生
基金资助:
中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金2013 年度项目“中国‘第二次人口红利’及对经济长期发展影响的理论与实证分析”( 项目号: 13XNH176)

Abstract

Abstract: Fertility in China dropped below the replacement level in the early 1990s, and has been increasingly lower, arousing intense academic discussion on fertility policy adjustment．This paper estimates the size of objective population that is targeted by the two-child policy after computing the amount of the only children in 2012 based on the data of the 2005 national 1% population sampling survey, and analyzes its impact on number of annual births．The results show that on account of the large number of the objective population covered by the two-child policy and women's strong desire to have the second
child，if there was an immediate transition to a universal two-child policy, number of annual births would sharply increase with the peak value up to nearly 50 million and a total fertility rate of about 4.5．However, immediately implementing the two-child policy could significantly retard the negative growth trend of population in the future, increase labor supply and slow down population aging in China．

Keywords: A Universal Two-child Policy, Number of Annual Births, Total Fertility Rate, Population Projection

摘要： 自20 世纪90 年代，我国妇女生育水平降至更替水平以下，并长期维持在较低水平，引发了对生育政策调整的热烈讨论。文章利用2005 年全国1%人口抽样调查等人口数据，推算2012年我国独生子女的规模，并从独生子女的角度估算2012 年立即全面放开二胎政策的目标人群，进而测算年度出生人口规模的变动。通过分析发现，由于全面放开二胎政策后新符合政策条件的目标人群规模较大，且妇女生育二胎的意愿仍处于较高水平，我国年度出生人口将在政策变动后急剧增加，出生人口峰值达到4995 万，妇女时期生育水平峰值达到4. 5 左右。但是，立即全面放开二胎可以明显改善我国总人口未来进入负增长的趋势，增加劳动力资源的未来供给，延缓人口老龄化的进程。

关键词: 全面放开二胎, 出生人数, 总和生育率, 人口预测

Zhai Zhenwu, Zhang Xianling, Jin Yongai. Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy[J]. Population Research, 2014, 38(2): 3-17.

翟振武，张现苓，靳永爱. 立即全面放开二胎政策的人口学后果分析[J]. 人口研究, 2014, 38(2): 3-17.

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