Abstract: Adjustment of the family planning policy provides an opportunity to reexamine fertility intentions of the urban and rural families in China．A survey with a large sample size has been completed about the fertility desires of the second child of the couples in which one side has no siblings under the new two-child policy in Hubei province．Survey results show that the proportion definitely wanting a second child is 21. 51%，with the proportion in the rural families being higher than that of the urban families; the fertility desire for the second child is decreasing with the increasing of women’s age，and is also decreasing with the increasing of women’s schooling for urban families while increasing for rural families．A half of the families which are allowed to have a second child state they will give up the opportunity because of economic pressure．Migration reduces the desire for having the second child and weakens son preference．Relative to the structural risk of fertility accumulation，ultra-low fertility trap should arouse more concern．

Keywords: The New Two-child Policy, Fertility Intention, Desired Fertility

摘要： “单独二孩”政策的放开，为我们重新认识城乡居民的生育意愿提供了机会。文章对湖北省符合“单独二孩”政策家庭进行了二孩生育意愿的大样本调查，数据分析结果显示，符合“单独二孩”政策人群超过2 /3 在城市，农村相对较少;“单独二孩”政策家庭的平均理想子女数为1. 70;明确要二孩的比重只有21.51%，农村居民二孩生育意愿略高于城市; 育龄妇女年龄越大，二孩生育意愿越低; 文化程度越高，城市育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿越弱，农村育龄妇女二孩生育意愿反而越强。就业迁移明显降低了农村家庭的二孩生育意愿和男孩偏好。在符合“单独二孩”政策但不打算要二孩的家庭中，50%的家庭是因为经济压力大。相对于结构性生育堆积风险，超低生育率陷阱更应该引起学术界和各级政府的重视。

关键词: 单独二孩政策, 生育意愿, 理想子女数