Abstract: This paper explores the effects of population aging on service industry by an empirical analysis using data from 55 countries，1960－2009. Results show that the proportion of service industry increases with population aging，but the effects through consumption path become statistically significant only after the level of population aging surpasses a certain point．We call it“demand effect”．When population aging proceeds to a very high level，the demand effects disappear as employment growth in the service industry is constrained．The demand effects differ between developed and less developed countries because of their different stages of economic development and population aging，especially different status of service industry measured by its proportion of GDP，labor productivity and the degree of marketization．The nature of the demand effects depends on both the level of population aging and the proportion of consumption in GDP．Thus，it is important to accelerate the development of the service industry in China both for positive response to population aging and sustainable economic development．

Keywords: Population Aging, Service Industry, Demand Effects, Consumption

摘要： 消费需求效应是人口老龄化影响服务业发展的作用机制之一。利用1960-2009 年55个样本国家数据进行实证检验发现，人口老龄化达到一定程度后，会通过消费路径产生推动服务业(包括产值和就业)比重提升的需求效应，并且随着老龄化水平提高，需求效应递增; 但高度老龄化后，由于会加强劳动力供给约束，老龄化对服务业就业增长的推动作用不再显著。按发达国家和欠发达国家分样本观察发现，处在不同经济发展水平和老龄化发展阶段的国家因在服务业比重、服务业劳动生产率和经济市场化程度等方面存在差异，老龄化需求效应的作用大小和表现形式不尽一致。需求效应同时受到老龄化水平和消费比重的影响。大力发展服务业对我国积极应对人口老龄化和实现经济可持续发展具有双重的重要意义。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 服务业, 需求效应, 消费