Abstract: This paper explores the impact of population structure on China’s housing market using a general equilibrium theory framework. The simulation results suggest that there are marked impacts of the demographic transition on changing housing prices. Largely resulting from the baby boom in the 1980s and rapidly declining births in the 1990s, China’s house prices had rising pressure in around 2001 when the 80s baby boom generation entering into marriage age; while the house prices would have falling fluctuation in around 2014 when the 90s baby bust generation entering into marriage age causing declining housing demands. Thus, Changing population structure needs to be taken into account in formulating policies to regulate the housing market.

Keywords: Baby Boom, Population Structure, Housing Market, House Price

摘要： 文章通过对1960~2010年我国出生人数的分析，发现2001年左右，随着80后出生高峰步入婚配，住房价格面临上升的压力；2014年左右，随着90后出生低谷一代步入婚配，住房需求逐年下降，住房价格面临下降的波动。通过一个住房市场均衡的理论框架，文章仅考察人口的年龄结构对住房市场的影响。仿真结果显示：随着80后出生高峰和90后出生低谷相继进入婚配，房价会呈现一个倒U型的轨迹。符合经济现实的仿真结果显示：房价将在2014年左右下降，同时在80后出生高峰进入成年的时间段内，我国住房的需求和供给缺乏弹性且相差不大。故人口结构的改变对住房市场具有实质性的影响。在对住房市场进行调控时，应考虑到出生高峰引致的人口结构的改变。

关键词: 出生高峰, 人口结构, 住房市场, 房价