Abstract: The scale and distribution of the disabled elders are important indicators for estimating demands of the elderly for long-term care services. In addressing the estimation biases caused by inadequate sample size in current elderly surveys, this study pools the survey data of CLHLS, SSAPUR and CHRLS in 2010～2011 weighted by the population structure of the sixth population census, and estimates the disability proportion and the healthy life expectation of the elderly. Results show that the disability rate of the Chinese elderly in 2010 stood at 11.2%, and the average living time duration with ADL Disability was 2.53 years; rural and female elderly were more likely to suffer from moderate and severe ADL disability than their urban and female counterparts. In addition, the gender difference in the proportion of the healthy life expectation among total life expectation rises as age grows. Conclusively, this study suggests that rural and female elderly are the dominant population groups receiving long-term care services.

Keywords: Elderly People, ADL Disability, Pooled Data, Disability Free Life Expectancy

摘要： 失能老年人的规模及其分布是评估老年人长期照料服务需求的关键指标。针对专项调查存在的细分后样本规模不足而导致的估计偏差问题，文章采用数据合并的方法，将2010～2011年期间的三项老年专项调查数据合并，并结合“六普”数据的人口结构对中国老年人口的失能率以及生活自理预期寿命进行评估。结果显示:2010年中国老年人口的失能率为11.2%；农村、女性老年人的中重度失能的风险以及失能人口的绝对规模均高于对应的城市、男性老年人群。2010年中国60岁老年人口的生活自理预期寿命为17.22岁，平均带残存活时间约为2.53年，但女性超过男性0.71年。两性老年人生活自理预期寿命在余寿中所占比例的差异随年龄增加而扩大。研究认为，农村、女性老年人将是长期照料的主要群体。

关键词: 老年人, 失能, 合并数据, 生活自理预期寿命