Abstract: Separation and integration of rural migrants with urban citizens in China is determined not only by the household registration system, but also by the development stage of non-agricultural industry and the conditions of rural people when they achieved the citizenship status. Having exceeded 50 percent urban in China, urban and rural populations could either keep separation, falling into the Latin America Trap, or turn to integration, leading to unified and balanced urban and rural development. In achieving integrated development between rural and urban populations, in addition to demolishing dual segmentation resulting from the household registration system, it is necessary to break off the stagnation in social class mobility due to rural and city separation, and to promote urbanization driven by non-agriculturalization, providing more development opportunity with capacity building for rural mobile population.

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摘要： 乡城人口的分化与融合，表象看，取决于户籍制度的存废；深层看，还与城镇化所处的演化阶段密切相关，更取决于非农产业发展程度和“农转非”群体的生存发展境况。跨过50%城镇化率的中国乡城人口格局面临两种走向：或继续分化、落入城镇化的“拉美陷阱”；或导向融合、实现“统筹城乡”的发展愿景。站在这种分合变局的历史关口，促进中国城乡一体化发展，就不能止步于拆除城乡“二元”户籍制度藩篱，还需要打破长期以来“城乡分治”导致的阶层流动固化僵局，坚持非农化引领城镇化发展的政策取向，赋予农业转移人口更多的发展机会与更强的致富能力，才有助于抑制分化、导向融合，促成以中产阶级为主体的“橄榄型”社会早日到来。

关键词: 乡城人口, 分化与融合, “二元”分割, 城镇化, 非农化