Abstract: Migrant workers’ intention of settling in cities plays a very important role in the process of promoting the new-type urbanization.This paper examines settlement intention of migrant workers in cities using data from two surveys on migrant workers in 2012 and 2013. Results show that migrant workers are more likely to settle down in big and local cities, especially capital cities of local provinces. Thus the newtype of urbanization with “big city priority” would be an option to which the migrant workers could be responsive and supportive. However, both the numers and development quality of the big cities in China are not adequate. The Chinese government should give priority to develop big cities or metropolitan regions in the process of promoting the new-type urbanization, which not only could attract a large number of floating rural population,but also promote the development of small and medium-sized cities.

Keywords: Migrant Workers, Floating population, Settlement Intention, New-Type Urbanization

摘要： 自1980年代以来，中国城镇化路径究竟应以“大城市优先还是小城市优先”一直存在争议，新型城镇化战略的实施再度引发了关于该问题的争论。文章旨在利用2012年江浙沪三地流动人口数据以及2013年7城市流动人口调查数据分析农民工的城市定居偏好，进而从微观视角探讨新型城镇化路径选择问题。结果显示农民工的城市定居意愿具有显著的大城市和省内城市偏好，其中省会城市比中小城市以及其他城市更有吸引力。因此，文章认为“大城市优先”的新型城镇化道路更能够得到农民工的响应和支持。当前中国的大城市无论数量和规模，还是发展质量都存在不足，重点建设一批大城市不仅可以吸引过剩流动人口，转移超大城市的人口压力，还可以通过大都市圈建设带动中小城市的发展。

关键词: 农民工, 流动人口, 定居意愿, 新型城镇化