Abstract: The 13th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for China, in which cmacro population problem is the core element. Population aging and low fertility leading to reduction in labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population，implying that China's population policy must be adjusted．This paper argues that birth policy adjustment accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction．A universal two－child policy is a logical result of the adjustment of China's current fertility policy，which is believed to bring about positive effects on the future demographic and economic development，particularly in sustaining long term balanced development of China's population，eliminating marriage squeeze，lengthening demographic dividend and delaying aging process．China needs to develop and improve support and governance system for fully implementing the universal two －child policy．

Keywords: Universal Two－Child Policy, Fertility Intention, Policy Effect, Policy Transition, Governance Transition

摘要： “十三五”对中国来说非常关键，人口均衡发展问题是这一关键时期的核心要素。老龄化与少子化并存导致劳动力减少的人口结构叠加效应对我国人口长期均衡发展产生深远影响，这意味着人口政策必须做出适应性调整。文章认为逐步放开的生育政策调整符合我国人口政策设计初衷和发展方向，“普遍两孩”生育政策是我国现行生育政策调整和完善合符逻辑的结果，其政策实施将对我国保持人口长期增长、缓解婚姻市场挤压、延长人口红利收割、推迟老龄社会进程等方面的人口学后果和经济学后果产生积极效应，未来我国需要完善适应“普遍两孩”生育政策的支持体系和治理体系，实现从奖励少生向保障人口安全的政策转型以及“普遍两孩”生育政策治理体系和治理能力现代化转型。

关键词: 普遍两孩, 生育意愿, 政策效应, 政策转型, 治理转型