Abstract:

The changes of household structure have important impact on the resources and environment under the effect of household size．This article constructs and testes the empirical model of China’ s household transition．China’ s household transition has apparent regional characteristics．The breakpoints of household transition in developed regions are 1975 and 2003，and their household transition is now being in the final phase．However，the first breakpoint of household transition in developing regions is 1981，and the second breakpoint has not yet occurred．This analysis shows that the environmental effect of the household size changes is greater than the effect of population transition，an effect just second to consumption level．It is there- fore necessary and reasonable to analyze the relationship between population and environment with a household structure transition perspective，and pay more attention to the negative impacts of household transition．The developing regions could learn the experiences from the developed regions in order to avoid the similar environmental crisis．

Keywords:  Household Transition, Dynamics, Environmental Load, Economics of Household Size, Seg- mented Regression

摘要：

在家庭规模效应的作用下,家庭结构变化对资源环境有着特别重要的意义。文章构建并验证了中国家庭转变模型。中国家庭转变呈现区域性特征,发达地区家庭转变分界点为1975年和2003年,并已进入家庭转变的末期;发展中地区家庭转变分界点为1981年,第二分界点还没有到来。家庭转变的环境影响分析显示,家庭规模变化产生的环境效应全面超越人口数量变化的效应,成为仅次于消费水平的重要因素,从家庭结构变化的角度分析人口与资源环境的关系具有合理性和必要性。家庭转变会导致家庭消费品效率的损失,在享受家庭转变带来的社会福利时,也不能忽视其对环境造成的负面压力,发展中地区应积极总结发达地区的经验教训,避免发达地区的相关环境危机重演。 

关键词: 家庭转变, 动态过程, 环境负载,  , 家庭规模效应, 分段回归