Abstract:

The optimum population under the constraint of resources and environment，by which both the con- straints of resources and the environment are met and a certain standard of living and development goals are achieved，is an important basis for China’ s future population policy considerations．Based on the concept of optimum population and the analysis of its internal mechanism under the constraint of resources and environment，12 indexes are selected from the fields of natural resources，environmental and socioeconomic development．Using the possibility- satisfiability model，we separately estimate the optimum scale of China’ s population under a single factor and different combinations of indexes in both 2030 and 2050 as the target point time．The results show that the lowest value of China’ s optimum population under the constraints of major resources and environment is around 1157-1322 million in 2030 and 1465-1626 million in 2050，while the desired optimum population of China would be 986-1311 million in 2030 and 1188-1389 million in 2050． Water resource is always the most important factor in restricting China’ s population growth in the future．The relationship between population，resources and environment would be more strained by 2030，and then would tend to improve after 2050．

Keywords: Optimum Population, Resources and Environment, Possibility-satisfiability Model

摘要：

 资源环境约束下的适度人口,既能够符合资源环境的约束条件,同时又能达到一定生活水准和发展目标,它是制定中国未来人口政策的重要依据。文章采用可能-满意度模型(P-S法),基于资源环境约束下的适度人口概念及其内在机制分析,提取自然资源、环境因素、社会经济因素三方面中的12个指标,以2030年和2050年为目标时间点,分别计算单个因子和多种方案下对应的适度人口规模。结果表明:在各种主要资源环境约束下,若我国2030年的人口规模介于11.57~13.22亿人之间,2050年介于14.65~16.26亿人之间,则可以实现最低的临界适度目标;若2030年和2050年总人口能分别达到9.86~11.11亿人和11.88~13.89亿人,则可以实现理想的适度人口目标。未来制约我国人口增长的最主要因素始终是水资源;2030年之前我国人口资源环境关系进一步趋紧,之后直到2050年后将趋于好转。 

关键词: 适度人口, 资源环境, 可能-满意度模型