Abstract: Borrowing from Michigan Consumer Confidence Index，this paper constructs Social Inclusion Confidence Index for China’s rural to urban migrants．Based on evaluation of present situation of social inclusion and expectations，the index specifically incorporates towns-favoring，attention，admission，equality，happiness，intention，expectation of obtaining household registration and expectation of long-term residence in urban areas．The index is used in the analysis of the 2012 China National Migrants Survey，from the overall situation to the differences among the provinces and types of cities．The construction and application of the index may provide important information for government and for development of relevant industries，help predict the future trends in migration and in social inclusion，and provide reference for policy making and urban development planning．

Keywords: Migrants, Social Inclusion, Confidence Index, Current Conditions Index, Expectations Index

摘要： 文章在相关文献的基础上,从社会融入现状评价和预期两大视角,具体包括现住城镇喜欢程度、关注程度、接纳程度、平等程度、幸福程度和意愿融入程度、户口迁入预期和长期居住预期等8个方面,构建能够反映流动人口城镇社会融入状况的信心指数。并将该指数用于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析研究,分别从总体状况以及不同省份、不同城市类型等角度,解析流动人口城镇社会融入信心水平。该指数的构建及应用能够为政府及相关行业发展提供可靠的信息支持,能够根据社会融入现状指数和预期指数提前预判流动人口未来的流动方向、社会融入趋势和程度等,为相关政策的制定与执行、城市社会发展规划提供依据。 

关键词: 流动人口, 社会融入, 信心指数, 现状指数, 预期指数