Abstract: In this study，we construct a multidimensional framework for analyzing marital stability among floating population，generate hypotheses，and test them based on a large sample survey of 157535 migrants’households in 106 cities in China．The prevalent divorce rates among floating population are of clear patterns by age，education and urban/rural type，with higher rates for older，more educated and urban-registered residents．By province，the divorce rate of flow-in migrants is similar to that of flow-out migrants，reflecting regionalized cultural effects on marriage．The risk of divorce is enhanced in the migration process during which the quality of marriage declines，contacts for the substitution increase，and search costs for marriage reduce．Regression results show that the odds of being divorced are greater for solely moved husbands ( than wives) and those who migrated for a longer period and over a shorter distance．

Keywords:  Floating Population, Marriage Stability, Marriage Matching, Marital Quality

摘要： 文章先从流动人口的流动方式、流动时间和流动空间 3 个维度来构建流动人口婚姻 稳定性的分析框架，再基于全国 106 个城市 157535 个流动人口家庭调查数据来检视流动人口离婚风 险的影响机理。研究发现:城镇户籍流动人口离婚率高于农村户籍，并随年龄增加和教育程度的提高 而升高。此外，同省流入和流出人口在离婚率上非常近似，反映了区域性婚姻文化效应。流动过程中 婚姻质量的降低，替代资源可接触性的增多，再婚搜寻成本的降低，都增加了流动人口的离婚风险。 回归结果显示:丈夫独自外出务工，流动时间长、距离短，与当地文化差异少，离婚风险高。

关键词: 流动人口, 离婚率, 婚姻匹配, 婚姻质量