Abstract:

This paper constructs an explanatory model of fertility changes based on social dynamics, which consists of three factors affecting human reproductive behavior, including fertility intentions, contraceptive barriers and competing preferences. The changes in the relative effects among these three factors contribute to three stages of fertility change in human history: natural fertility, shrinking fertility and suppressed fertility. In China, family planning policy is the fourth factor. With the promotion, implementation and relaxation of the family planning policy, Chinese reproductive behaviors have adjusted accordingly, leading to fluctuating fertility rates. The building-up of market economy in early 1990s stimulated the competing preferences. Based on data for East China from the 2017 fertility survey, this paper examines trends in total fertility rate, marital duration-specific fertility rate and parity-specific total fertility rate. With Shanghai in center, fertilities by provinces differ latitudinally. We also show the changes of monthly distribution of births since 2012 to see the influence of family planning policy adjustment.

Keywords: Fertility Change, Fertility Intention, Family Planning Policy, Social Forces, Reproductive Behavior

摘要： 文章从社会动力的视角建立生育率演化的解释模型，认为影响生育行为的3种基本社会动力是生育意愿力、节育阻隔力和竞争偏好力，它们此消彼长的演替推动了人口发展经历自然生育、节制生育和抑制生育3个历史阶段。计划生育政策是影响中国生育行为的第4种动力，伴随计划生育的倡导、推行以及单独二孩和全面二孩的政策松弛，中国的生育率发生了较为复杂的变化；1990年代初期市场经济体制的确立激发了竞争偏好力。文章依据华东地区的2017年生育状况抽样调查数据，揭示一般生育率、婚后生育率及其孩次模式的演化，在空间上表现为以上海为中心向南北两侧递变的纬度地带性。文章按月份进度考察出生数对政策松弛的响应节奏，确认了计划生育政策调整的社会有效性。

关键词: 生育率演化, 生育意愿, 生育政策, 社会动力, 生育行为