Abstract: Labor productivity is a symbolic indicator that determines the potential growth of the regional economy. Under the situation of population ageing, understanding the relationship between the population ageing and labor productivity is very important for understanding the source of economic growth and maintaining sustainable development. We use dynamic panel data models to study the effects of population ageing on labor productivity. It is found that the impact of population ageing on labor productivity varies significantly in different periods. In the short term, the current level of population ageing and the one-period lag level of population ageing have significant different effects on labor productivity. However, the long-term effect of the elderly dependency ratio on labor productivity has been identified to be not significant. At the same time, the relationship between population ageing and labor productivity shows an “Inverted U” shape. The point of elderly dependency ratio for the maximum labor productivity is between 8.65% and 8.79%. The results are quite stable under other indicators of population ageing. 

Keywords: Labor Productivity, Population Ageing, Elderly Dependency Ratio, Dynamic Panel Data Model

摘要： 劳动生产率是决定区域经济具有增长潜能的标志性指标，在人口老龄化不可逆转的情况下，认识二者之间的关系对于深入了解经济增长的源泉、保持可持续经济发展具有重要的现实意义。基于此，文章采用动态面板数据模型研究人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响。研究发现，人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响在不同时期有显著差异，呈现明显的动态特征。短期内，人口老龄化在当期和滞后一期对劳动生产率的影响显著不同；人口老龄化对劳动生产率的长期效应并未凸显。进一步研究证实，人口老龄化与劳动生产率之间呈现明显的“倒U”型关系，人口老龄化最大劳动生产效应的拐点位于8.65%~8.79%之间。在采用老年抚养比指标反映人口年龄结构老化的条件下，研究结论仍然稳健。

关键词: 劳动生产率, 人口老龄化, 老年抚养比, 动态面板数据模型