Abstract: Opportunity cost of childbearing is one of the fundamental theories explaining family fertility decision and fertility decline in developed countries. It is also an important factor driving the trend of low fertility in China, particularly the ultra-low fertility in the large cities, and the much lower effects of the two-child policy than expected. This research aims to address the question of measuring opportunity cost of childbearing in urban China. Using data from 2017 China National Fertility Survey and life table method, estimation results suggest that bearing and rearing of one child would bring loss of 6-7 years of working life expectancy, converting into a wage loss of nearly 300 thousand yuan. This wage loss is estimated to be 480 thousand yuan for women with college education and over, and 580 thousand yuan for women living in largest cities Beijing and Shanghai. Future research can examine differences in opportunity cost of childbearing among women in different occupations, different sectors and different regions.

Keywords: Motherhood/Child Penalty, Opportunity Cost, Labour Force Participation Rate, Life Table, Average Working Life Expectancy

摘要： 生育的机会成本是微观经济理论阐释家庭生育决策和生育率下降的重要影响因素，也是中国低生育率趋势以及两孩政策下生育意愿持续低迷的重要因素。生育代价，即因生育导致的劳动参与率下降及收入损失，是生育机会成本最重要的组成部分。利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据，使用回归模型和生命表方法，对中国城镇女性生育代价进行了估计。中国城镇女性生育1个孩子，将导致其一生的工作时间损失6~7年，折算的收入损失接近30万元；对于高等教育程度的女性，生育1个孩子的收入损失将近50万元；生活在北京、上海特大一线城市的女性，生育1个孩子的收入损失接近60万元。生育的巨大代价显然是大城市超低生育率的重要原因。不同群体生育率差异也与生育代价的差异有很大关系。

关键词: 生育代价（生育惩罚）, 机会成本, 劳动参与率, 生命表, 平均工作预期寿命