Abstract: Since 2015, the implementation of “The Outline of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Plan” has led to a new thinking of Beijing's population regulations in the new era, based on the measures of relocating non-capital functions of Beijing, promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and driving population decentralization through functional decentralization. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Beijing's population regulation policy since 2015 by using the quasi-natural experiment of difference-in-differences-in-differences estimation. This paper finds that the implementation of Beijing's population regulation policies is negatively correlated with the size of permanent residents, and the policies effectively reduce the population of permanent residents by 11.6% compared to the case without the new polices. The policy effect becomes significant after 2017 and increases year by year. Further analysis suggests that because the 2020 population planning target has been basically achieved, the population regulation targeted at scale control needs to be adjusted. Under the framework of comprehensive optimization objectives, space optimization and quality improvements of population should be carried out in next step.

Keywords: Population Regulation, Policy Effect, Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences Estimation

摘要： 2015年以来以《京津冀协同发展规划纲要》国家战略的实施为标志，有序疏解北京非首都功能促进京津冀协同发展，并通过功能疏解带动人口疏解，成为新时期北京市人口调控的新思路。基于三重差分法对2015年以来北京市人口调控政策的效果进行定量评估，研究发现：2015年以来北京市人口调控政策与常住人口规模之间存在显著相关性；新时期人口调控政策对常住人口规模下降产生积极推动作用，与不实行新调控政策下当前可能的人口规模相比，下降了11.6%；新时期人口调控政策在2015~2018年期间的影响效果呈现上升趋势。进一步分析认为，目前在已经基本实现2020年人口规划目标的前提下，以规模控制为导向的人口调控政策需适当调整，应当将空间优化和素质提升作为重要内容，在综合优化目标框架下进行人口的优化调节。

关键词: 人口调控, 政策效果, 三重差分法