Abstract: China has the largest population and the largest scale of manufacturing. Population ageing influences Chinas development from various aspects. The transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry will evolve with the rapid ageing process. Drawing on the new structural economics, this paper suggests that population ageing leads to a labor endowment change. Affected by the ageing labor structure and the diversified employment demands, the traditional comparative advantage gradually weakens. Therefore, the manufacturing industry is expected to move outward. However, the largescale industrial relocation at this stage is not conducive to maintaining the integrity of the industrial chain or keeping the employment rate in a country with a large population, especially for the older migrant workers. Instead of the industrial relocating that the developed countries or regions had adopted, the local industrial transformation and upgrading is more suitable for China. This could be learned through the practical experience of Dongguans manufacturing.

Keywords: Population Ageing, New Structural Economics, Industrial Relocation, Local Transformation and Upgrading, Machine Replacement

摘要： 中国既是人口大国也是制造业大国。人口老龄化的影响是全方位的，中国制造业的转型升级将在人口老龄化程度不断加深、老龄化速度不断加快的大背景下进行。基于新结构经济学视角，研究发现，人口年龄结构的老化导致劳动力禀赋发生改变，在劳动力老龄化、就业需求多元化等因素的共同作用下，中国制造业传统的比较优势逐渐被削弱，用工成本的增加使传统制造业面临巨大的外移压力。然而，现阶段大规模的产业外移不利于保持产业链的完整性以及解决人口大国的就业问题，尤其是人口老龄化背景下年长农民工的就业问题。相较于先发国家或地区的产业外移行为，产业就地转型升级更符合当前中国国情，东莞制造业的实践经验证明了这一点。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 新结构经济学, 产业外移, 就地转型升级, 机器换人