Abstract: Using the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper examines the influence of natural disasters on rural labor migration. The results show that natural disasters significantly increase the probability of rural labor outmigration. The impacts of different natural disasters, including floods, droughts, and other disasters, differ across regions. Natural disasters affect labor migration by increasing household agricultural income loss, credit demand, and aggregating relative poverty. Further analysis indicates that the implementation of disaster relief and reconstruction policies and the support from clan networks provide safeguards to resist disasters and reduce the possibility of labor outflow. In the face of violent natural disasters that families can hardly withstand, the policies are more effective. This study explores the effect of natural disasters on population migration in China, and provides suggestions for implementing population management policies and building a modernized natural disaster prevention government system.

Keywords: Labor Migration, Natural Disaster, Emergency Management, Family Strategy

摘要： 基于中国家庭追踪调查数据，考察自然灾害对中国农村劳动力流动的影响。研究发现，自然灾害冲击导致农村劳动力外出流动，但洪涝、干旱、台风灾害对劳动力流动的影响存在明显的区域异质性。自然灾害冲击通过增加家庭农业收入损失、信贷需求与相对贫困感，提高劳动力流动的概率。进一步的研究发现，赈灾重建等政策的实施、较强的农村宗族网络为家庭抵御灾害提供了保障机制，降低农村劳动力“因灾外流”的可能性。相比而言，对于复杂自然灾害引发的劳动力外流，家庭抵御灾害能力相对有限，政策的及时干预十分必要并且效果更为明显。研究结论从自然灾害角度为解释中国人口流动问题提供经验依据，也为制定人口管理政策、建设自然灾害防治体系提供政策建议。

关键词: 劳动力流动, 自然灾害, 应急管理, 家庭策略