Abstract: Reflecting collective norms towards childbearing at the societal level, the ideal number of children helps us project a society’s long  term fertility trend. Comparing China and other selected countries, our study shows that the average ideal number of children among women aged 18 to 49 is much lower in China than in other countries. We also observe relatively high one child and low 3 or more children ideals in China. Capitalizing on data from China Family Panel Studies, prefectural yearbooks, and digital map, we examine the effects of contextual factors on the ideal number of children in China. Results show that higher economic development level, higher income inequality level, lower total fertility rate, and higher educational competition level all lead to smaller ideal number of children. A mediation analysis reveals that contextual fertility level and educational pressure are important in shaping Chinese people’s ideal number of children. Our study suggests that fertility attitudes should be understood by taking historical and cultural contexts into account.

Keywords:  Ideal Number of Children, Macro-level Social Factors, Low-fertility Trap, Educational Pressure

摘要： 作为生育意愿的测量指标之一，理想子女数量反映了社会对于生育的整体心态，对理解长期的生育水平变化有重要参考意义。国际比较结果显示，中国育龄妇女平均理想子女数量已处于国际较低水平，一孩倾向较高，而三孩及以上倾向较低，但生育意愿实现率目前仍处于国际较高水平。利用中国家庭追踪调查数据和地区数据，进一步分析了影响中国居民理想子女数量的宏观社会因素。结果显示，地区经济发展水平越高、收入不平等程度越高、教育竞争压力越大、总和生育率越低，人们的理想子女数量越低。中介效应分析表明，地区生育环境与教育竞争压力的影响更加突出，为近期实施的“双减”政策提供了实证依据。在考察不同国家或社会中的生育观念时，应充分考虑其差异化的历史沿革与社会文化背景。

关键词: 理想子女数量, 宏观社会因素, 低生育率陷阱, 教育竞争压力