Abstract: While post-transitional societies have below replacement fertility, differentials exist with the lowest hovering around 1.0 and the highest remaining around replacement level. At present, the total fertility rate of 70% post-transitional countries (regions) is 1.5 and above, and only 8 countries (regions) have total fertility below 1.3. The differences of current social and economic development cannot fully explain the differences of post-transitional fertility level, and the answer need to be found from the historical process of social transition. Under the guidance of Ogben’s culture lag theory, this study proposes two concepts. One is the “Gender Equality Dilemma” and the other is the “Marriage and Fertility Cultural Conflict Dilemma”. These two concepts can basically explain the differences of post-transitional fertility level. China has now already been faced with these two “Dilemma”. In order to cope with the risk of low fertility, it is urgent to incorporate the concept of gender equality into the design of various public policies and realize the inclusiveness of fertility policies in an all-round and multi-level way.

Keywords: Total Fertility Rate, Post-transitional Fertility, Low Fertility, Gender Equality Dilemma, Marriage and Fertility Cultural Conflict Dilemma

摘要： 步入后生育转变阶段的国家（地区）的总和生育率虽然都稳定在更替水平之下，但高低不一，最低者徘徊在1.0左右，最高者维持在更替水平附近，现阶段有近70%的国家（地区）总和生育率在1.5及以上，有8个国家（地区）总和生育率在1.3以下。当前的经济社会发展水平无法完全解释后生育转变阶段的生育水平差异，需要从更长远的社会变迁历程中找寻答案。借助奥格本的文化滞后理论分析发现，性别平等领域和婚育文化观念中的两种“文化堕距”——“性别平等困境”和“婚育文化冲突困境”能够在很大程度上解释后生育转变阶段的生育水平差异。中国目前也已面临这两种“困境”，为应对生育水平低迷的风险，亟须在各项公共政策设计中纳入性别平等理念，并全方位、多层次地实现生育政策的包容性。

关键词: 总和生育率, 后生育转变阶段, 低生育水平, 性别平等困境, 婚育文化冲突困境