Abstract:  In the process of building a modern country, China is witnessing major changes unfolding in our world, something unseen in a century. China is also facing challenges such as rapid population ageing, negative population growth and a decline in labor force that would largely impact its socioeconomic development and comprehensive strength. Based on a renewed understanding of the population development and its relationship with socioeconomic development, this paper discusses the state of population development needed to enhance the country's economic strength. It also proposes the scope and direction of China's longterm population development in the future, emphasizing the central and fundamental position of population size. To be specific, the desired population size should be between 0.9 and 1.2 billion by the end of this century. Actively changing the longterm trajectory of population development, raising the fertility rate close to the replacement level and keeping the population size between 0.9 and 1.2 billion would also improve the population structure, quality and spatial distribution, strengthening the economy.

Keywords: Economic Strength, Highquality Development, Population Development Strategy

摘要： 在全面建设社会主义现代化强国的进程中，中国将面临世界百年未有之大变局，还将会受到人口加速老龄化、人口负增长、劳动力数量减少而抚养负担加重给社会经济发展和综合国力提升带来的影响和挑战。在对人口发展规律和人口与社会经济发展关系重新认识的基础上，论证了不断增强国家经济实力所需要的人口发展状态，提出未来中国人口长期发展战略目标的范围和方向，明确了人口规模在战略取向上的核心和基础地位。具体来说，应积极改变人口长期发展轨迹，以接近更替水平为目标努力提升生育率，从而到21世纪末使总人口规模能够维持在9亿~12亿人，促进人口向着规模相对稳定、结构逐步优化、素质不断提升、空间分布合理的有利于增强经济实力的方向发展。

关键词: font-family:", background-color:#FFFFFF, ">经济实力；高质量发展；人口发展战略