Abstract: COVID-19 has a huge impact on society. It is urgent to study how COVID-19 affects fertility intention. Based on the Hubei Fertility Survey, the study finds that COVID-19 has a positive effect on the fertility intention. As the risk level of epidemic increases by one unit, there would be an increase of 39.6% in the fertility intention of the second child and an increase of 55.6% in that of the third child. Further analyses show that, for the second child fertility intention, COVID-19 has a more significant promotion effect on groups with high self-rated socio-economic status, high education level, and non-agricultural Hukou. For the third child fertility intention, COVID-19 only promoted the fertility intention of groups with high self-rated socio-economic status, high education level, and non-agricultural Hukou. These results have import implications for understanding the fertility changing trend during the post-epidemic era.

摘要： 新冠肺炎疫情对人类社会发展产生了巨大且深远的影响，其如何影响人们的生育意愿亟待研究。基于第三期湖北省百县生育调查数据和新构建的地区疫情风险等级指数，研究了新冠肺炎疫情对居民生育意愿的影响。结果显示，新冠肺炎疫情对居民生育意愿有显著促进作用，地区疫情风险等级每上升1个单位，一孩家庭的二孩生育意愿提高39.6%，二孩家庭的三孩生育意愿提高 55.6%。进一步分析表明，对于二孩生育意愿，地区疫情风险等级的上升对高自评家庭社会经济地位群体、高受教育水平群体以及非农户口家庭的促进作用更为明显；对于三孩生育意愿，新冠肺炎疫情仅对高自评家庭社会经济地位群体、高受教育水平群体以及非农户口家庭产生显著正向影响。研究结论对于研判后疫情时期中国生育水平走势具有重要启示意义。

关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情, 三孩政策, 生育意愿, 生育格局