Abstract: This study, from an urban-rural integration perspective, examines and compares trends in educational assortative marriages by couple's rural/non-rural hukou status. We use new methods, such as rank-rank correlation and Exchange Index, to analyze 81756 couples from nationally representative survey data (i.e., the 2003-2018 CGSS and 2010 CFPS). We find a substantial and persistent difference between rural and urban marriages. Couples who both have an urban hukou have more similar educational statuses than couples of whom either one or both have a rural hukou. This gap in homogamous tendency is mainly driven by highly educated couples. Moreover, we find gender-asymmetrical hukou-status exchange patterns for rural-urban inter-marrying couples, whose relative advantages in hukou or educational status could not compensate each other. These new findings reveal the profound influence of unbalanced development between rural and urban regions, highlighting potential directions for future policies for better incorporating rural-urban integration with sustained population development.

Keywords: Hukou, Assortative Mating, Status Exchange, Counterfactual Analysis

摘要： 从城乡融合发展视角出发，系统比较1960年以来基于夫妻户口类型划分的4类城乡婚姻的教育地位匹配模式及其变化趋势。通过运用rankrank相关系数和“交换指数”反事实分析等前沿方法，整合分析2003~2018年间各期中国综合社会调查（CGSS）和2010年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）两项全国代表性大规模社会调查数据所包含的81756对夫妻，发现中国婚姻匹配模式长期存在明显城乡差异，双方均为城镇户口的夫妻的教育地位同质性程度远高于一方或双方为农村户口的夫妻，而高等教育人群的婚姻匹配行为是塑造该城乡差异的重要原因。跨城乡户口通婚的夫妻在改革开放以来呈现非对称的户口-地位交换模式，长期面临双方相对优势无法互补的困境。这些发现反映了城乡社会发展长期失衡对婚姻匹配模式的深远影响，对探讨促进城乡融合与人口均衡发展的政策有一定借鉴意义。

关键词: 城乡户口, 婚姻匹配, 地位交换, 反事实分析