Abstract: The older generation of migrants face the decision of whether to settle in the destination, and their settlement intention is an important basis for predicting their future settlement. Based on the 2012-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS2012-2018), this article focuses on analyzing the cumulative effect of residence duration on their settlement intention. It has been found that the older generation migrants have a significantly stronger settlement intention, and have been staying in the destination for a long time. Their settlement intention significantly increases with the extension of their residence duration. The residence duration moderates the impact of other factors on the settlement intention of the older generation migrants. It strengthens the positive impact of higher education and having medical insurance and the negative impact of agricultural household registration and overtime work, but weakens the positive impact of the size and type of core families. The main and moderating effects of residence duration on the settlement intention of the older generation migrants can be deeply understood through the retention selection mechanism of migrants from the theoretical perspective of cumulative advantages and cumulative disadvantages.

Keywords: Older Generation Migrants, Settlement Intention, Residence Duration, Cumulative Effect

摘要： 老一代流动人口面临着在流入地是否长期居留的抉择，长居意愿是预测他们去留的重要依据。基于2012~2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS2012-2018)数据，重点分析了居留时间对老一代流动人口长居意愿的累积效应。研究发现:老一代流动人口在流入地的长居意愿较强，他们在流入地的居留时间较长，其长居意愿随居留时间延长而明显增强;居留时间调节着其他因素对老一代流动人口长居意愿的影响，它强化了高等教育学历、拥有流入地医保的正向影响以及农业户口、超时工作的负向影响，却弱化了流入地家庭规模、核心家庭类型的正向影响。厘清居留时间对老一代流动人口长居意愿的主效应和调节效应，有助于从累积优势和累积劣势的理论视角更好地理解流入地对外来人口的留存选择机制。

关键词: 老一代流动人口, 长居意愿, 居留时间, 累积效应