Abstract: In line with the expectation of the Second Demographic Transition, premarital cohabitation is becoming increasingly common in China. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data from 2010 to 2022, this study adopts the Cox proportional hazards regression model to analyze the influence of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage and its mechanisms. This study also tests several competitive hypotheses, including the Trial Marriage Hypothesis, the Experience Hypothesis, the Selectivity Hypothesis, and the Diffusion Hypothesis. The findings show that the risk of divorce at first marriage is significantly higher for those who have experienced premarital cohabitation, and the negative effect of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage is still robust after removing the self-selection effect. The cultural meaning and popularity of premarital cohabitation varies across different groups. Further analysis reveals the moderating effects of birth cohorts and education levels. Overall, premarital cohabitation still has a negative effect on the stability of first marriage in the Chinese context. However, as cohabitation gradually spreads among recent birth cohorts and highly educated groups, its negative influence is weakened, supporting the main argument of the Diffusion Hypothesis.

Keywords: Premarital Cohabitation, Stability of First Marriage, Event History Analysis, Moderating Effect

摘要： 随着中国第二次人口转变不断深入，居民婚前同居行为日益普遍。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010~2022年数据，借助Cox比例风险回归模型，分析婚前同居对个体初婚稳定性的作用机制，并对试婚假说、经历假说、选择假说及扩散假说在中国语境下的解释力进行检验。研究发现，有过婚前同居经历的人群，初婚的离婚风险显著更高，剔除自选择效应后，婚前同居对初婚稳定性的消极影响仍然稳健：婚前同居的文化意涵和普及程度在不同人群中差别较大，在婚前同居作用于离婚风险的过程中，出生队列和教育水平产生了显著的调节效应。总结而言，在中国语境下，婚前同居对初婚稳定性仍主要产生消极影响，但随着同居行为在更晚出生队列和高教育水平群体中逐渐扩散，这一消极影响被显著削弱，证实了扩散假说的主要观点。

关键词: 婚前同居, 初婚稳定性, 事件史分析, 调节效应