Population Research ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1): 3-19.

• Constructing China's Independent Demographic Knowledge System •     Next Articles

On the Statistical Standard, Intensity, and Age Patterns of Migration and Floating Population in China

Ding Jinhong, Huang Xiaoli, Han Yulu, Chen Yihao   

  • Published:2025-01-29 Online:2025-01-29
  • About Author:Ding Jinhong is Professor, Huang Xiaoli is PhD Candidate, Han Yulu is Master Student, and Chen Yihao is PhD Candidate, Institute of Population Research, East China Normal University. Email:jhding@re.ecnu.edu.cn

中国人口迁移流动的口径、强度与年龄模式

丁金宏, 黄小丽, 韩予璐, 陈益豪   

  • 作者简介:丁金宏,华东师范大学人口研究所教授;黄小丽,华东师范大学人口研究所博士研究生;韩予璐,华东师范大学人口研究所硕士研究生;陈益豪,华东师范大学人口研究所博士研究生。电子邮箱:jhding@re.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    本文为国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国居民生育行为的地理模式及其社会空间辩证法研究”(42371261)的阶段性成果。本研究得到国家统计局-北京大学数据开发中心的支持,使用了2020年第七次全国人口普查微观数据库。文章内容不代表相关机构官方观点,文责自负。

Abstract: By combining the places of residence at present, five years ago and at birth, and the place of household registration from census tabulations, migrations in China can be divided into basic categories including long-term migration, short-term migration, direct migration, nominal migration and circulation. Based on both macro and micro data from 2020 census, the scale and intensity of various types of inter-provincial migration are estimated, revealing differences in cultural stickiness and institutional resistance at both origin and destination. To avoid ambiguity, it is recommended that “Inter-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X but not crossing the boundaries of upper level, “Intra-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries below level X, “Cross-X Migration”stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X and above. The Courgeau model indicates that the Crude Migration Intensity (CMI) for lifelong migration in China is 49.5%, while the CMI for five-year migration is 21.0%, showing that Chinese people are becoming more migratory as urbanization progresses. The Rogers age patterns of migration also correspond to contemporary China with some peculiarities in the middle and older age peak. The high proportion of adolescents in nominal migration means that the household registration system still prevents the descendants of migrants from settling down de jure.

Keywords: Migration and Floating, Geographical Information, Statistical Standard of Migration, Migration Intensity, Age Patterns of Migration

摘要: 根据中国人口普查中现住地、出生地、5年前常住地和户口登记地等多维地理信息的交叉组合,将人口迁移流动分为长期、短期、直接、循环迁移流动及名义流动等类别,并借助2020年第七次全国人口普查宏观和微观数据核算了中国各类省际迁移流动的规模和强度,发现不同类型的迁移流动折射出不同的出发地文化粘性、目的地经济拉力以及迁移过程的制度阻力。为避免术语歧义,建议以区际迁移、区内迁移和跨区迁移规范表达本级、向下兼容和向上兼容3个迁移层级。应用Courgeau模型推算中国居民终身粗迁移强度(CMI)为49.5%,5年迁移的CMI为21.0%,反映出中国城镇化进程中人口迁移活性不断增强的趋势。中国人口迁移的年龄模式既符合Rogers模型,又有自己的国情特性,中老年阶段存在潜在的迁移高峰,户籍制度障碍造成名义流动人口中少儿比重畸高。

关键词: 迁移流动, 地理信息, 迁移口径, 迁移强度, 迁移年龄模式