Abstract: As the “ageing echo” of the “Baby Boom”, the “Ageing Boom” has not yet received sufficient scholarly attention. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the nation has experienced four distinct “Baby Boom” cohorts, which are projected to transform into “Ageing Boom” during the periods 2010-2018, 2022-2036, 2041-2054, and 2071-2079 respectively. Each “Ageing Boom” represents a peak in the growth of the new elderly population, and its cumulative and superimposed effects will drive China's ageing population through phased transformations characterized by sequential stages: ascent, peak, buffer, and decline. China's demographic ageing under the “Ageing Boom” paradigm exhibits both distinctive and general characteristics: a historically unprecedented population scale, asynchronous growth in size and proportion, ageing of the age structure, balancing of the gender structure, and steadily rising survival rates. Focusing on the ongoing second “Ageing Boom”, projections indicate that approximately 330 million individuals will enter old age, with urban residents and population with at least secondary education constituting the majority of this elderly cohort. These demographic shifts present dual implications—harboring developmental opportunities while simultaneously posing practical challenges that require prudent consideration and proactive responses.

Keywords: “Baby Boom”, “Ageing Boom”, Population Ageing, Elderly Population Growth

摘要： 作为“婴儿潮”的“老龄化回声”，“老年潮”这一人口现象尚未得到足够重视。新中国成立以来，已出现过4次“婴儿潮”，它们将分别于2010~2018年、2022~2036年、2041~2054年和2071~2079年期间转化为“老年潮”。每一次“老年潮”都是一个新增老年人口高峰，其累积与叠加将促使中国老年人口规模出现爬升期、攀峰期、缓冲期及衰退期等阶段性变化。“老年潮”背景下的中国人口老龄化兼具典型性与一般性特征，集中表现为规模空前巨大、规模与占比攀升不同步、年龄结构老化、性别结构均衡化、存活率稳步上升等。着眼当下，第二次“老年潮”中预计有3.3亿人进入老年期，来自城镇地区、接受过中等及以上层次教育的老年人在新增老年人口中占据主体，这些变化既孕育着全新发展机遇，亦带来诸多现实挑战，需审慎看待、积极应对。

关键词: “婴儿潮”, “老年潮”, 人口老龄化, 老年人口增长