Abstract: Based on data from China's seven national population censuses (1953-2020), WorldPop, and World Population Prospects 2024, this study employs the “Five Forces” analytical framework to longitudinally examine the formation, evolution, and trends of the population concentric ring structure in China's metropolitan areas through long-term, multi-layer dynamic analysis and multi-model cross-verification. The research aims to advance the study of metropolitan population distribution toward “Developing Chinese Theory Based on Chinese Reality.” The findings reveal that the layered nature of population distribution in China's metropolitan areas has continued to intensify, with distinct typological characteristics. Early-developing and late-developing metropolitan areas exhibit differentiation both between and within types. The population center of gravity in these areas, after undergoing shifts, has gradually regressed, reflecting the spatial resilience of population distribution from a long-term perspective. Under the influence of China's unique governance approach—the sequential implementation of medium- and long-term plans—an orderly evolutionary model of the population concentric ring structure in metropolitan areas has been shaped. Based on these insights, this study identifies four critical issues that require urgent attention in the planning of China's metropolitan population layers and proposes governance strategies, providing both empirical and theoretical support for advancing spatial population governance in metropolitan areas.

Keywords: Core City, Metropolitan Area, Population Concentric Ring Structure, Population Forecast, Population Census

摘要： 本文基于1953~2020年7次全国人口普查、WorldPop以及《世界人口展望2024》数据，依托“五力”分析框架，通过长时段、多圈层动态分析及多模型互证，纵向考察了中国都市圈人口圈层格局的形成、演进与走势，旨在推动都市圈人口圈层结构研究进一步朝着“从中国实际提炼中国理论”的方向发展。研究发现，中国都市圈人口分布的圈层性持续强化，类型化特征明显，先发与后发都市圈在类型间与类型内形成分异；都市圈人口重心在经历变动后逐步向历史起点回归，体现出长周期视角下的人口空间韧性；在接续实施中长期规划这一中国特色治理方式的作用下，中国都市圈人口圈层结构有序演进模式得以塑造。基于此，本文识别出中国都市圈人口圈层规划亟待关注的4个关键议题，并提出治理对策，为推进都市圈人口空间治理提供实证与理论支持。

关键词: 核心城市, 都市圈, 人口圈层结构, 人口预测, 人口普查