Abstract: This study employs data from the 2017 National Fertility Survey and applies accelerated failure time models and the generalized F distribution to analyze three sequential life-course events among Chinese women—first marriage, transition from first marriage to first birth, and transition from first to second birth—by urban-rural residence, birth cohort, and educational attainment. Results indicate that in younger cohorts, the impact of educational attainment on timing of first marriage and probabilities of remaining unmarried has become increasingly pronounced. Regarding the interval between first marriage and first birth, differences across urban-rural and educational lines have narrowed, suggesting a tightening linkage between marriage and childbearing, and a weakening heterogeneity. For the transition from first to second birth, the residential and educational gap has also substantially diminished. Overall, residential and educational heterogeneity plays its most significant role during the first marriage transition, with delayed first marriage emerging as the primary bottleneck contributing to postponed fertility and declining birth rates.

Keywords: Women of Reproductive Age, Heterogeneity, Marriage and Fertility Transition, Accelerated Failure Time Model, Generalized F Distribution

摘要： 文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据，通过在事件史分析中构建加速失效模型和引入广义F分布，系统分析了育龄女性初婚、一孩生育、二孩生育等事件的递进规律，并从城乡、队列、受教育程度等维度探讨了异质性特征。在较晚出生队列中，随着受教育程度的提高，女性的初婚概率显著降低，初婚年龄加速推迟，初婚年龄城乡差距始终为正；不同受教育程度的城乡女性初婚初育间隔均有所缩小，表明婚育之间的联系更趋紧密，人群异质性趋弱；城乡和不同受教育程度女性在生育一孩到生育二孩的递进上呈趋同态势。总体而言，城乡和受教育程度的异质性作用主要体现在初婚阶段，初婚递进不畅是当前生育推迟和生育水平下降的主要原因，建议政策更加关注婚姻的关键阻滞作用。

关键词: 育龄妇女, 异质性, 婚育递进, 加速失效模型, 广义F分布