Abstract: China's total fertility rate has declined to ultra-low level. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the determinants of subsequent childbearing intentions for a second or third child among Chinese individuals of reproductive age.

The existing literature typically assumes, either explicitly or implicitly, that individuals of reproductive age have a son preference—specifically, a desire to have at least one son—and accordingly treats the number of existing children and whether they have a son or not as separate core explanatory variables in estimating the likelihood of subsequent childbearing. However,currently more than half of the reproductive-age population has shifted their ideal family structure toward having one son and one daughter. To address this gap, this paper contributes to the literature by conceptualizing “fertility intention” as a construct that encompasses both subjective goal orientation and realized outcomes. Specifically, we investigate how fertility support and fertility desire interact to shape subsequent childbearing intentions, and examine which dimension of unfulfilled preference—quantity or sex—exerts a stronger influence on the decision to have another child. Particular attention is paid to complex scenarios in which the quantity preference is satisfied but the sex preference is not, or vice versa.

Drawing on data from the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and employing an ordered logit model, this empirical analysis reveals that household annual income exerts an inverted U-shaped effect on higher-order fertility intentions, peaking at approximately RMB 400,000. Both grandparental care and childcare services facilitate subsequent childbearing intentions. Reproductive-age individuals exhibit no significant preference regarding the public or private nature of childcare institutions, yet remain sensitive to the pricing of high-quality services. Under specific economic constraints, individuals are generally unwilling to exceed their intended family size solely to satisfy a sex preference. In contrast, when the actual number of children falls short of the desired level, having “more girls than desired” promotes the intention to have a third child. Conversely, having “more boys than desired” suppresses the intention for a third child, regardless of whether the existing number of children is below, equal to, or above the desired level. Furthermore, among those desiring at least one son and one daughter, the gender of the firstborn does not significantly affect second-child fertility intention.

Based on these findings, the following policy implications are proposed. First, expanding the coverage of childcare subsidies and educational burden-reduction initiatives is necessary to alleviate the economic pressures of childrearing for ordinary families. Second, reforms targeting marriage customs are required to promote a more equitable sharing of marital responsibilities between the families of the bride and groom, thereby alleviating the long-term financial burden on families with sons. Finally, public health and social interventions should aim to cultivate a positive and supportive marriage and childbearing environment, progressively building a favorable landscape where people of childbearing age are willing, confident, and eager to expand their family.

Keywords: Fertility Desire, Higher-order Fertility Intentions, Fertility Support, Vignette Experiment

摘要： 本文将生育意愿界定为兼顾主观目标导向与现实达成结果的概念，利用2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据，基于有序Logit模型考察生育支持与生育意愿对育龄人群再生育计划的影响。研究发现，家庭年收入对二孩和三孩再生育计划的影响呈倒U形且均在约40万元的家庭年收入时达到峰值；祖辈照料和托育服务均会促进再生育计划；在特定经济条件下，育龄人群不会因未能实现生育意愿中的性别偏好而突破意愿生育子女数量；当已育子女数量少于意愿生育子女数量时，已育女孩数量多于意愿生育女孩数量会促进三孩再生育计划，已育男孩数量多于意愿生育男孩数量则会抑制三孩再生育计划。据此提出政策建议：提升全社会育儿补贴和教育减负支持的覆盖面，降低一般家庭生育养育教育的经济压力；推动婚嫁责任在男女双方家庭之间平等分担；重塑积极的婚育氛围，形成育龄人群愿生、敢生、乐生的良好局面。

关键词: 生育意愿, 再生育计划, 生育支持, 虚拟情境实验