Abstract: By analyzing the macro-economic situation and current research,the authors argue that nationwide labor shortage at present time is the consequence of the "vote with feet" due to the lower actual wage than the reserve wage.It is different to use the unitary model of New Family Economics to analyze the logic reaction of rural migrant labors in facing the social reality from that using the individual economics behavior approach.Rural household invests in its member’s labor capital in order to maximize the household utility and avoid risk in the context without sufficient financing capital and educated human capital.In conclusion,this kind of logic reaction leads to the ineffective releasing of "demographic dividend" in modern manufacture industry and agriculture,and the labor shortage and industrial agriculture which is negative environmental externality.

Keywords: Labor shortage, Lewis Turning Point, Demographic Dividend, New Family Economics

摘要： 本文分析了当前普遍范围的"用工荒"是由于实际工资低于保留工资引起的农民工"用脚投票"结果。在此利用新家庭经济学单一模型理论分析这种经济行为是与简单单一个体预期效用最大化的经济行为相区别;农户以家庭为单位在金融资本及现代教育人力资本短缺的情况下通过家庭成员劳动力资本对外投资实施风险规避,在家庭内部实现收入分享,风险共担。这种经济行为带来的在工业制造和农业无法有效释放"人口红利"的结果,最终导致"用工荒"和环境负外部性以资本替代劳动的现代农业生产。

关键词: 用工荒, 刘易斯转折点, 人口红利, 新家庭经济学