Abstract: Modernization theory predicts loosening family ties and the gradual decline of family supports for the elderly.In a transitional economy,we argue that the rapidly growing income for adult children helps to maintain family supports for the elderly at a high level.Data from 2005 China’s 1% population survey shows that half of elderly people in towns or rural areas relied on family supports as the main source for living.The odds-ratio from Logistic regression shows that family supports were far greater for females than males and far greater for rural than for urban residents.Labor migration by a rural household member greatly enhanced the odds of family supports for the elderly in rural areas.In the cities,we found that the odds of family support were the highest in the well-developed regions along the coast.As the population is rapidly aging,more government efforts are needed to expand socialized supports for the elderly,especially to the weakest.

Keywords: Elderly Support, Family Support, Labor Migration, Regional Disparities

摘要： 现代化理论预测未来家庭纽带会减弱,对老人的家庭供养会逐渐减弱。我们认为市场转型过程中,子女的人力资本和收入的快速提高有助于供养老人。利用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文对60岁以上老年人口的主要生活来源进行了深入分析。研究表明,城市老年居民主要靠离退休金,镇和农村老年人仍有一半靠家庭供养,农村另有40%的老人依靠自我劳动生活。Logistic回归的结果显示农村家庭中子女的劳务迁移提高了老年人的家庭供养比。此外,农村、女性、高龄、低教育老人的家庭供养比高,而城市,男性,低龄,和教育程度较高的供养比低。分城乡老人家庭供养比,农村在不发达的西部最高,城市在发达的东部最高,反映家庭供养U型发展趋势。面对老人比例激增的局面,政府应积极扩大社会养老保障的覆盖面,加强扶持老年弱势群体,减轻家庭养老负担。

关键词: 老年供养, 家庭供养, 劳动力迁移, 市场转型, 城乡差异