Abstract:  Total fertility rate in most European countries has experienced a shape decline since 1980s,with many having very low fertility rate.Hypotheses have been offered to explain why fertility keep declining when they are already very low in many countries.The low fertility trap which has been advanced by Lutz and his collaborators is one of the most popular theories.According to Lutz and his co-workers’ opinion,once the TFRs have declined to level below 1.5,it is by no means easy to rise up to that level because of the self-reinforcing mechanisms of the very low fertility rate.In this paper,the author introduces the low fertility trap hypothesis and the self-reinforcing mechanisms,the core concept of Lutz’s theory.After analyzing the three parts of the low fertility self-reinforcing mechanism(population dynamics,sociological reasoning and economic rationale)and combining the fact that fertility have raised in some very low fertility countries in recent years,the author argue that it is too early to say that low fertility trap is true.

Keywords: Low Fertility Trap, Low Fertility Self-reinforcing Mechanism, Tempo Effect

摘要： 20世纪80年代以后,欧洲国家生育率持续下降,一些国家生育率降到并持续保持极低的水平,这种现象引起了西方人口学界乃至大众的广泛关注,很多学者对欧洲持续的低生育率现象及其原因进行了探讨,其中最有影响的理论之一是鲁茨等人提出的"低生育率陷阱"。按照鲁茨等人的观点,一国总和生育率一旦降到1.5以下,就会产生一种"低生育率自我强化机制",于是,生育率就如同掉进了"陷阱",很难再回升到1.5以上。本文介绍了低生育率陷阱的概念和作为其理论核心的"低生育率自我强化机制"并从人口学机制、社会学机制和经济学机制分析了"低生育率自我强化机制"本身的缺陷,从理论上论证"低生育率陷阱"可能存在的问题,在这一基础上笔者结合近年来欧洲一些低生育率国家生育率回升的事实,认为低生育率陷阱究竟是事实还是神话,还需要进一步的理论证明和实践检验。

关键词:  , 低生育率陷阱, 低生育率自我强化机制, 进度效应