Abstract: At the start of the 21st century,the global population has reached 6 billions.The growth rate is significantly slower.Many countries completed their demographic transition;their TFRs are below the replacement level.Population health,meanwhile,has been improved remarkably-notable decline in mortality,as well as increase in life expectancy.This paper systematically analyzes the global trend,regional variation,as well as pattern in life expectancy in the past 50 years,using mortality data for 192 countries published by United Nations.The results indicate that life expectancy has been globally increasing for the last half century.More than 50 percent of the world’s population lives in countries or regions in which life expectancy is above 70 years old.The trends of life expectancy are diversified in that higher increase in less developed regions than in more developed regions,and the proportion of their population rose significantly.The largest increase in life expectancy occurred in Asia.While improvement in Africa is smaller than the world level,gaps among African countries or regions are great.

Keywords: World population, Life expectancy, Patterns of development

摘要： 进入21世纪以来,全球人口已经突破60亿,但是人口增长速度明显减慢。许多国家已经完成了人口转变,其总和生育率在更替水平以下。与此同时,人口健康状况得到明显改善,死亡水平显著降低,期望寿命在不断提高。本文利用联合国人口司发布的192个国家人口死亡信息,系统分析了世界人口平均期望寿命在过去50年里的演变态势、区域差异以及演变模式。结果显示世界人口期望寿命经历了半个多世纪的持续增长,有50%以上的人口或国家平均期望寿命达到了70岁。演变轨迹呈多样化的发展模式,区域发展不平衡。欠发达地区总体上较发达地区增幅大,人口比重上升幅度也很显著。人均期望寿命增幅最大的是亚洲国家,非洲国家与世界不同步,而且区域内差异较大。

关键词: 世界人口, 期望寿命, 演变模式