Abstract: This paper examines the destination choice of migrants from a cost-benefit perspective, using binary logit models to explain why the megacities are so popular to be their destination. The results show that the net revenue, particularly different wage levels the floating individuals expect has great impact on their destination choices, which validates an important fact that high-wage income or that the huge wage gap between different regions is an important reason why migrants flowing into megacities. The total expenditure of floating migrants in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou does not inhibit their flowing into these large cities. Implications of the results are that rather than taking measures to raise the cost of living in the cities to limit the floating population, it is better to make efforts in developing neighboring regions to attract more enterprises, create more jobs, and improve public services, thus redirecting the migrants in choosing their destination.

Keywords:

摘要： 文章以流动人口个体的成本收益为切入点，在理论分析基础上采用二元Logit模型分析个体成本收益对流动人口流入地选择的影响，试图回答为什么流动人口如此青睐超大城市作为迁入地。研究结果表明在流入地的净收入对流动人口流入地的选择具有显著影响；另外，与实际收入囊中的现金收入相比，不同流入地的工资水平,即收入的预期对其选择流入地的影响更大，这说明不同地区巨大的工资收入差距是流动人口向北上广这样的超大城市集聚的重要原因。流动人口个体在北上广较高的支出并没有抑制其流入，说明政府与其通过提高生活成本抑制其流入，不如通过带动周边地区发展，吸引更多企业进入，创造更多就业岗位，完善公共服务，从而引导流动人口流入地的选择。

关键词: 流动人口, 流入地选择, 成本收益分析, 超大城市, Logit模型